Recent polling from The New York Times and Siena College found President Joe Biden trailing former President Donald Trump in five of the six most crucial battleground states, one of which is Nevada.

In the Silver State, Trump leads Biden by 10 percentage points.

Elaine Kamarck, director of the Center for Effective Public Management with the Brookings Institution, said despite polls showing Biden slipping, compounded with his unfavorable approval rating, does that mean voters won't vote for him and other Democrats in the upcoming election?

She says it isn't a simple answer.

"Maybe there is just no relationship between the president's popularity and down-ballot voting. That voters vote on very different things, and maybe because we have a 'president-centric' kind of culture, maybe we just get that wrong all the time," Kamarck explained.

While The New York Times-Siena College poll comprised just over 3,600 registered voters among all six states, Kamarck said other state-based polls, which struck fear in many Democrats, are composed only of about 600 participants, which she added are not likely to be grasping the entirety of voters' preferences and true attitudes.

Kamarck said looking at the special elections in 2021, the midterms in 2022 and the most recent set of elections this year, Biden's unpopularity doesn't have much to do with Democratic votes. She contends Democrats "over performed expectations" in all three years and increased their margins.

She argues abortion is a huge motivator for Democratic voters. This comes as a Nevada judge recently rejected a proposed 2024 ballot measure, supported by Nevadans for Reproductive Rights, which sought to enshrine reproductive rights, including abortion, in the state's constitution.

"Where the right to choose is front and center on the agenda, abortion is an incredibly powerful motivator. I think in my lifetime in politics, which has been pretty long, it is probably the biggest push I've ever seen, really," Kamarck said.

District Judge James T. Russell deemed the proposal to be too broad and sided with the Coalition for Children and Parents PAC, which sued last month to block the measure. Currently, anyone who is pregnant in Nevada has the right to an abortion within the first 24 weeks of pregnancy. An abortion may be performed after 24 weeks if deemed necessary to save the life of the mother.

Voting-rights advocates continue their push to restore these rights for formerly incarcerated Mississippians after lawmakers failed to act.

House Bill 1609, which died in the state Senate last week, would have automatically reinstated voting rights for people who complete their sentences and remain felony-free for five years.

Nsombi Lambright-Haynes, executive director of One Voice, said nearly 60 voting-rights bills were introduced during the legislative session, but fewer than 10 survived.

"Those eight that have passed the Senate now go to the governor's desk," he said, "and he can sign them or not sign them and they become law, and those people have their voting rights back. Or he can choose to veto those."

One in ten Mississippians does not have a voice at the ballot box because of a prior felony conviction.

Lambright-Haynes said the campaign is also working to overturn a 134-year-old Mississippi lifetime voting ban law that prevents people convicted of certain crimes from casting a ballot.

It is a difficult process to get voting rights restored in Mississippi, Lambright-Haynes said. Formerly incarcerated persons must hire an attorney to have their record expunged, and then get a pardon from the governor - or they can seek help from state lawmakers.

"You can get your representatives to introduce a bill on your behalf," he said, "and that bill is introduced in whatever house that representative is a part of, either the House or the Senate, and it's voted on."

State Rep. Otis Anthony, D-Indianola, said the folks re-entering society should be granted the right to fully participate in all aspects of life.

"These are human beings who have families," he said. "These are people who have been convicted, they've been incarcerated, they've paid their debt to society. And yet, we're not allowing them to be fully restored. Let's not take the human side out of the equation."

The bill would need two-thirds approval of the House and Senate. The Fifth Circuit Court heard arguments in a lawsuit challenging the lifetime voting ban in January, but has not yet ruled in the case.


get more stories like this via email

New York groups are providing student protesters with resources to help sustain demonstrations safely and peacefully, as the war between Israel and Hamas wears on.

In the weeks since they began, student protesters have faced arrests, rubber bullets, and other crowd-breaking tactics by law enforcement. Students want universities and colleges to divest from Israel amid the country's ongoing war with Hamas. Others have shown support for Israel.

Kalaya'an Mendoza, director of mutual protection for the group Nonviolent Peaceforce, said there are many ways to remain safe when protesting.

"If you're going to any protest, action, or demonstration, always make sure you have a buddy and always make sure that someone else knows where you are at and when you plan to be home safe," Mendoza urged. "Number two, practice situational awareness. Situational awareness is essentially understanding what's happening around you."

Mendoza emphasized protesters should also pay attention to exit points, be aware of threats, be prepared with water, a snack and necessary meds, and carry a mask in case of tear gas. For bystanders and others, he pointed out basic situational awareness can help them navigate protests and encampments.

Students aren't the only ones causing the ruckus. The New York City Police Department reported more than half of the 170 people arrested at a City College protest were not students, and 29% of the 112 arrested at Columbia were not either.

Mendoza stressed administrators should do the opposite of what they have been doing.

"School administrators should be meeting with students and should not escalate to this point," Mendoza argued. "These students are unarmed, they are engaged in practicing peaceful non-violent protest, which is a fundamental human right."

He asserted the primary source of violence has been police escalation at encampments. A report from the nonprofit Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project showed a majority of student protests occurring since last October when the war in Gaza began have been peaceful. New York has seen the most pro-Israel and pro-Palestine demonstrations with California running a close second.

South Dakota's June 4 primary will be the first national election here since ballot dropboxes were banned in 2023.

It is one of 12 states to ban using dropboxes to cast votes, although no state election offices using the boxes in 2020 found a connection to voter fraud or stolen ballots, according to an Associated Press survey. The change is more likely to impact rural and tribal voters, who already face barriers to voting.

Sen. Shawn Bordeaux, D-Mission, a member of the Rosebud Sioux Tribe, said although Native voter turnout for tribal elections is good, turnout for statewide elections is lower. He said dropboxes helped.

"It was something that a lot of people utilized on our reservation communities, where you might have to travel 70 miles to go vote," Bordeaux explained.

A 2022 federal report on Native American voting rights encourages local officials to provide sites for voter registration, polling and mail ballot collection in places convenient for Native voters.

Early voting is still possible with a mail-in absentee ballot. But Bordeaux pointed out it can be complicated on reservations, where most homes do not have street addresses. The state's voter registration form allows applicants to describe or draw a map of where they live, but they cannot use post office box numbers.

"I can't get UPS or the typical person to find my house on a map," Bordeaux noted. "It makes it even more difficult for me to figure out how to get our tribal membership so that they can vote, you know, without the P.O. box number."

Plus, South Dakota does not accept tribal ID cards for voter registration. Bordeaux sponsored a bill to change the rule in the last legislative session, but he said it was pulled from the House floor by a different sponsor who predicted it wouldn't pass. The deadline for voter registration is May 20.

Support for this reporting was provided by The Carnegie Corporation of New York.