SEATTLE — Americans have learned a lot about how Donald Trump feels about people through Twitter. But how do Twitter users feel about Donald Trump? Computer scientists from the University of Utah have developed what they call "sentiment analysis" software that can determine how voters are feeling based on what they write or say.
Feifei Li, an associate professor at the University who helped develop the program, said it provides a real-time window into how the public is reacting to political events.
"What's cool is that you can actually adjust the lens of the window. If you look at the last few months of data altogether, the sentiments for Democrats is stronger than the sentiments for Republicans,” Li said. "Given the recent outburst of email scandals, things might change a little bit."
Researchers said the biggest surge of positive tweets for Republicans came during the national convention, and again after a video was released of Trump boasting about sexually assaulting women. The peak for both positive and negative tweets for Democrats came on the heels of the final debates.
Li's team started with more than 250 million global tweets and used advanced software to identify 1.6 million political posts in the United States. Li noted the program was only able to detect the leanings of Twitter users, which are not necessarily reflective of the population at large.
The group's results suggested that if larger data streams could be tapped in future versions, today's pollsters could find themselves out of a job.
"We feel like if you collect enough data from the population, if you get an unbiased sample from the population using this data-driven approach, the results might be more accurate,” Li said.
The scientists used artificial intelligence and machine learning to help the program decipher complexities in human language. The group then compared its results with the New York Times' forecasts and found the state-by-state analysis was very similar.
More information on the study and its findings is available here.
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Republican Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton has emerged from a long court case with another win.
After nine years and multiple delays, prosecutors are going to drop securities fraud charges against the embattled official. As part of the deal, Paxton must perform 100 hours of community service, pay almost $300,000 in restitution and take advanced legal education courses.
Dan Cogdell, attorney for Ken Paxton, said they welcomed the deal.
"It is not a plea bargain, he didn't plead," Cogdell emphasized. "There is no admission of guilt, there will never be an admission of guilt, because he's not guilty."
In 2015, Paxton was accused of persuading investors to buy stock in a tech startup, without disclosing he would be compensated for the deal. He was also accused of steering clients to a friend's investment advising business without registering with the Texas State Securities Board.
The deal is the second recent legal ruling in Paxton's favor. Six months ago, he was acquitted on 16 corruption charges in an impeachment trial in the Texas Senate but he has not been cleared of all accusations against him. Paxton is being sued by four of his former deputies, who say they were fired after making reports to the FBI he was using his office to help a supporter.
Cal Jillson, professor of political science at Southern Methodist University, said the federal investigation will be handled differently.
"They're taking their time turning over all the rocks," Jillson observed. "If they think there has been illegal behavior on the part of the attorney general, that will be a much different process than the political process that we saw in the Texas Senate."
Despite his legal troubles, Paxton has remained a popular politician. He's been reelected two times since he was indicted. Prosecutors in the case said if Paxton does not comply with the terms of the deal, he could still be tried on the original fraud charges.
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The New Hampshire House passed a bill to eliminate any exceptions to the state's voter ID law and requires documented proof of citizenship in order to register.
The bill would eliminate "affidavit voting" for those without ID and give any registered voter the right to challenge a person's voter registration on Election Day.
Rep. Heath Howard, D-Strafford, said challenges would require the lowest burden of legal proof and could prevent eligible voters from casting a ballot.
"It doesn't seem logical to me or fair that somebody could walk into a polling place, sign an affidavit, and take away somebody else's right to vote," Howard stressed.
Howard explained people would have to visit a state superior court to reclaim their eligibility, an often lengthy and costly process. Supporters said the bill simply aims to solidify existing ID law and prevent voter fraud.
Voting-rights advocates said more than 2,000 Granite Staters without identification used affidavits to vote in the 2022 midterm election and strict voter ID laws disproportionately impact Black, Native, elderly and student voters.
Howard noted not everyone has their birth certificate, and passports or naturalization papers can take months to receive. He emphasized several state investigations of voter fraud in 2020 yielded zero criminal proceedings.
"I think that we've experienced enough of this nonsense when it comes to accusations of voter fraud," Howard asserted. "This is just further perpetuation of that's not necessarily grounded in facts."
Howard added the latest attempt to tighten ID requirements could also be in violation of the Help America Vote Act and National Voter Registration Act. A similar law in Kansas was struck down in 2020 by a federal appeals court as unconstitutional.
Support for this reporting was provided by The Carnegie Corporation of New York.
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More than 86,000 Wyoming voters have been purged from voter rolls, thanks to a state law requiring county clerks to remove people who did not vote in the most recent election, according to a new analysis by AARP Wyoming.
Wyoming is one of 20 states to purge inactive voters, a policy affecting more than one in three Americans.
Tom Lacock, associate state director for AARP Wyoming, said it is important for people who sat out the midterm elections to make sure their registration is up-to-date.
"For folks who have not voted during the 2022 election, it's really the right time now to get to their county clerk's office and register for the 2024 presidential election," Lacock emphasized.
The high number of purged Wyoming voters is largely attributed to higher than normal turnout in the 2020 presidential election followed by near record low turnout in the 2022 general election. Lacock noted county clerks typically send postcards to those being purged, encouraging voters to contact their clerk to remain registered.
Secretary of State Chuck Gray has also proposed changes to the state's voting rules, which could make it much harder for people who do not have a valid driver's license to vote, such as nursing home residents or older voters who have stopped driving. Lacock noted the window for early voting is also closing.
"The other big change this year is we're going to see the number of days that voters can participate in early voting dropped from 45 days to just 28 days," Lacock pointed out.
A new state law also changes how Wyoming voters can vote in primary elections. Lacock explained people must now pick which party's primary they want to vote in no later than May 15.
He encouraged all eligible voters to make sure they can participate in the upcoming November election, which will determine the makeup of half the U.S. Senate, the entire House of Representatives...
"... and the presidential election, all hitting in the same year," Lacock stressed. "This is really an opportunity to make sure that candidates understand what is important to you, and to stand up and be counted."
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