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What Would Be the Economic Impact of the Tax Deal?

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Monday, December 13, 2010   

CHARLESTON, W.Va. - The politics and fairness of the tax deal worked out between the White House and Republicans in Congress are being hotly debated in Washington. But what impact would the deal have on the economy?

Andrew Fieldhouse, who studies the federal budget as an analyst for the Economic Policy Institute, says some parts of the deal will spark job growth and others will not, but he say a reliable model projects a large impact on the nation's economy next year.

"That means growth at about four percent in 2011, approximately one percentage point higher than previously anticipated, and this tax package will reduce the unemployment rate by about one percentage point."

He says one part of the package, a very low inheritance tax, does almost nothing to create jobs.

"This is just the accumulation of wealth, no stimulative policies. People will sit on estates, invest it maybe a little bit, but almost no economic impact in the near term."

However, he says, the estate tax rate was something Republicans pushed hard for.

For months, concerns about the budget deficit have dominated much of the debate, but Fieldhouse says the tax cut deal shows lawmakers are focusing on something more important now: jobs.

"It's encouraging that both sides of the aisle in Washington have come to accept that the unemployment rate is at an unacceptably high level and that more stimulus is needed."

Critics have questioned the wisdom of extending tax breaks for the wealthy. Fieldhouse says there are much better ways to stimulate job growth. He cites extended benefits for the unemployed, which is in the plan, and targeted spending on infrastructure, which is not.


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