CHARLESTON, W.Va. -- Repeal of the Affordable Care Act without immediate replacement would throw the U.S. healthcare system into turmoil for the next three years, according to economists.

The Urban Institute projected that the most likely plan for repeal would leave nearly 30 million Americans uninsured by 2019, send insurance markets into chaos and threaten the economic viability of hospitals around the country.

Edwin Park, vice president for health policy at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, predicts insurers will start canceling coverage in the face of billions of dollars in losses if there is no longer a mandate for consumers to buy insurance. But, Park said, the largest impacts may come in two years, when the repeal of the Medicaid expansion and the insurance subsidies that help people pay for coverage will likely kick in.

"More than doubling the number of uninsured that otherwise would occur,” Park said. “And that would be a higher number than was in place pre-Affordable Care Act, because of the virtual collapse of the individual market that would result."

President-elect Trump and Republicans in Congress have criticized Obamacare for its rising premiums and reduced choice of doctors and insurance options. They campaigned on the promise of immediate repeal, even though the program has just finished its largest signup period ever.

First up for repeal are the taxes, mostly on high-income households, that pay for much of the program. Park said they found that more than half of these tax cuts would go to the rich - millionaires or richer - according to Congressional Budget Office figures.

Without that revenue, he said replacing the ACA would be difficult, or could require taking funds from Medicare or Medicaid. Park said that could explain the delay.

"The most critical aspect is that there is no replacement plan,” Park said, “that replacement would happen at some subsequent point, assuming there even is a replacement plan."

The Urban Institute projects that, by 2019, healthcare providers will have to give four times the amount of uncompensated care they do now. Park said in that year, they will also lose $146 billion in revenue because they have fewer patients with insurance - which will be a threat to many hospitals.

"Rural hospitals in states that have seen improvements because of adoption of the Medicaid expansion in their states - that would all be reversed, and more, under ACA repeal,” Park said.

More information is available at cbpp.org


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While Black Maternal Health Week is wrapping up, health disparities for pregnant Black women continues to be an issue.

From April 11-17 this year, the high death rate of Black mothers is in the spotlight. Black women are three times more likely to die from pregnancy-related causes than their white counterparts.

Dr. Patricia Egwuatu, a family practice physician at Kaiser Permanente in Seattle, said racism is at the root of the disparities, which create barriers to health care access. She pointed out lack of access can lead to problems during pregnancy that are preventable or treatable.

"They may exist prior to pregnancy and then it gets worse during pregnancy if it's not managed as part of that maternity care," Egwuatu emphasized. "There are more pregnant women that have chronic conditions such as hypertension, diabetes and heart disease that are amplified during pregnancy."

The White House released a proclamation recognizing Black Maternal Health Week. The Biden administration began recognizing the week in 2021.

Egwuatu noted there are some warning signs any pregnant woman should be aware of and check in with their physician if they develop.

"You might get some changes in your vision that is not your normal. So, like, fuzziness, you can't see as well, or an excruciating headache," Egwuatu outlined. "You could also develop new swelling in your lower extremities that's making it difficult to get around or even new shortness of breath."

Egwuatu stressed physicians also need to recognize the role of racism in medicine. She argued continuous medical education is important for learning how to confront biases, and it is important for doctors to understand how they can provide people with resources.

"Asking the questions about personal barriers," Egwuatu suggested. "Does a patient have issues with getting to work, child care, transportation? What's their education, what's their cultural background and language? And do they even have a cell phone so we can connect with them?"

Today, Connecticut health care advocates are holding a student day of action.

They will speak to state lawmakers about raising the age limit for undocumented immigrants eligible for HUSKY, the state's Medicare program. Undocumented people up to age 15 are eligible and the General Assembly is considering raising it to 18.

Yenimar Cortes, New Haven organizer for the group Connecticut Students for a Dream, said undocumented people not having health insurance is problematic.

"When it came to some stuff, like even a simple physical, my mom would have to like work and my dad would have to work like more shifts to be able to cover the costs," Cortes recounted. "It also meant getting sick was something we didn't want to do."

She added if they got sick, they would try home remedies before going to the hospital. Some people pay for visits out of pocket and take on medical debt. Some lawmakers opposed the age limit increase due to high costs, which studies estimated to be $83 million. However, the study noted expanding HUSKY could save hospitals between $63 million and $72 million.

Though uninsured rates fell during the pandemic, health officials are trying to ensure people maintain any coverage they have.

Luis Luna, coalition manager for the nonprofit HUSKY 4 Immigrants, said the pandemic helped advocates see the problem as a whole.

"It helped us see that health care is a fundamental human right," Luna asserted. "It helped us see that when people get sick and they don't take care of themselves their family suffers, and it helped us see that there's a really big disparity with health care access."

Several states have made health care affordable or available to undocumented immigrants. Luna added the hope is to make all immigrants, regardless of their status eligible for HUSKY.

A 2022 survey found most people support expanding HUSKY to all immigrants.

Today is National Healthcare Decisions Day, a day when everyone is encouraged to review their end-of-life planning. The 2024 Alzheimer's Association annual report predicts that the number of Americans 65 and older who are living with the most common form of dementia will double from nearly 7 million to 14 million patients by 2050.

Jessica Empeño, national director of clinical engagement with the end-of-life advocacy group Compassion & Choices, said legal matters are just part of the equation.

"The most important part is to have conversations about what matters most to you, what your wishes are, and share those things, not only with your family and your loved ones but with your health-care team," she explained.

People may want to put in writing who they want to be able to make decisions on their behalf once dementia progresses. They might consider whether in the future they would be OK with things like artificial hydration or nutrition, aggressive treatments or surgeries.

Compassion & Choices' website offers a free End of Life Decisions tool and a Dementia Values & Priorities Tool that helps people communicate and document their future health-care wishes, both for those who have early-stage dementia or those who just want to be prepared for the possibility.

Angela Schultz, California state advocacy director for Compassion & Choices, said people need to make a plan sooner rather than later.

"We just did recent polling, and 93% of Americans said that having an advanced directive and a health-care proxy and sharing that with your doctor is very important. But only 37% of Americans have done that," she said.

National Healthcare Decisions Day falls on April 16th, the day after tax day. It is a reference to the famous quote from Benajmin Franklin that "In this world, nothing is certain but death and taxes."