COLUMBUS, Ohio – As the federal budget process plays out in Congress, a national economist says there's a lot at stake for Ohio.
President Donald Trump's proposal attempts to balance the budget by 2027, with nearly $4.5 trillion in cuts.
The President of the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, Bob Greenstein, who spoke at the City Club of Cleveland on Friday, says the cuts are unprecedented, targeting food assistance, Medicaid, housing programs and job training.
He says states could only respond to that level of lost funding by raising taxes significantly, or cutting key investments and public services.
"For a state that's been struggling with economic change and inter-globalization and the like, as the Ohio economy does, and a state that's been grappling with some budget shortfalls, the Trump budget would be a pretty devastating blow," he explains.
Greenstein says the plan cut grants to states by $44 billion - and in Ohio, more than one-third of the total budget is made up of federal grants. He notes many of the proposed reductions are in programs that help the most vulnerable: children, families, the elderly and individuals with disabilities.
The cuts are being proposed as a way to fund tax cuts and increase military spending.
Democrats have strongly criticized the plan, and some Republicans are critical of certain elements. But Greenstein notes some of the measures are not unique, having been proposed by House Republicans since 2011 - including cuts to Medicaid, food assistance and job training.
"Some of the specific, individual, most unpopular proposals may be dead on arrival, but its broad themes - because they're similar to those of Congressional Republican budgets of recent years - it's a mistake to dismiss it as dead on arrival," he explains. "It needs to be taken seriously."
Greenstein says there's also concern about the House-passed American Health Care Act that would leave 23 million more Americans without health insurance. He also thinks it's troubling that Senate lawmakers haven't released any details of the Senate version of the bill.
"Health care is, like, one-sixth of the U.S. economy," he adds. "We're talking about redesigning it behind closed doors with few people knowing what's going into the bill. The way to do health care is on a bipartisan basis, and transparently."
The Senate could hold a vote on the legislation before the July 4 recess.
This collaboration is produced in association with Media in the Public Interest and funded by the George Gund Foundation.
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Earlier this month, a new Arizona Public Service rate hike went into effect and one senior advocacy group said those on a fixed income may struggle to now pay their energy bills.
According to the utility, the average residential customer will see an expected bill increase of about 8%, which translates to about $10.50 a month. They said it is all in an effort to continue to provide Arizonans with reliable and resilient power and make "critical investments" in their system.
Aimee Cvancara, associate state director of AARP Arizona, contended the possible effects could be significant.
"Folks who are on a fixed income, whether that is a retirement income or even a working income with limited mobility, it is difficult to absorb a $10 to $12 cost in your monthly bill that was unanticipated," Cvancara pointed out. "Particularly because it's not the only increase that folks are seeing right now."
Cvancara emphasized consumers are feeling the weight of increased prices on everything, from groceries to gas, rent and now power. Arizona Public Service rooftop solar customers could also see an additional $2 to $3 a month on their bills but the Arizona Solar Energy Industries Association and Attorney General Kris Mayes are both demanding for a rehearing on the case with the Arizona Corporation Commission to challenge the rate hike.
Cvancara noted moving forward, a significant concern for Arizona consumers is going to be something called the system reliability benefit mechanism, which allows Arizona Public Service to recover costs between rate cases for new, utility-owned generation resources.
"This is a new thing for APS customers," Cvancara explained. "It is going to allow the utility to file for up to 3% rate increase and they can do that five times before they have to file for another rate increase."
Some ratepayers and environmental groups oppose the system reliability benefit mechanism, as they argued it will only raise rates and increase demand for fossil fuels. Cvancara said the Arizona Corporation Commission should always strive to balance investments for reliable energy versus the cost consumers will face.
Disclosure: AARP Arizona contributes to our fund for reporting on Budget Policy & Priorities, Consumer Issues, Health Issues, and Senior Issues. If you would like to help support news in the public interest,
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A 2023 study from the University of Nebraska Medical Center concluded the number of Nebraskans with a mental health or substance abuse disorder has probably increased over the pre-pandemic level of 20%. It also observed 88 of Nebraska's 93 counties have a shortage of behavioral health professionals.
Nonetheless, the state budget now awaiting Gov. Jim Pillen's signature cuts $15 million from the Division of Behavioral Health's funding for the state's six Behavioral Health Regions, which distribute those funds to providers. Many advocates believe the cut is based on an incorrect conclusion.
Annette Dubas, executive director of the Nebraska Association of Behavioral Health Organizations, said because $15 million remained in the budget for the Regions, it was concluded the money was not needed. In fact, she said much of it was for projects and proposals awaiting Department of Health and Human Services approval.
"The problem is not that it's not needed; there's a problem with getting it out the door and into services quickly," Dubas explained. "Because we know the demand is there. And if it's not being spent, let's figure out why. That's what we want the governor to sit down and talk to us about, so we can figure out where the holdups are."
The $15 million will be shifted to the Lincoln Regional Center for hiring nurses and other staff. Dubas questioned how realistic it is for the center to spend this amount of money on staffing, especially when the state is facing a nursing shortage of more than 5,000 by 2025. She also questioned what will happen to any money left unspent.
Dubas stressed the Division of Behavioral Health is not the only agency losing money through this budget process.
"This administration has gone into a lot of different funds, cash funds, etc., and kind of swept out money that they perceive is not being used or is not being spent, to use to help with their property tax relief," Dubas asserted.
The Pillen administration is paying Epiphany Associates from Utah $2.5 million annually for up to four years, to find savings of up to 25% across state agency budgets.
Chase Francl, CEO of the Mid-Plains Center for Behavioral Health, which receives about 40% of its funding from Region III, said cutting programs that save the state money cannot be considered cutting "waste."
"Mental health and substance use treatment really is a prevention service," Francl contended. "If we can get this right, then people are going back to work and maybe aren't ending up in corrections. And you start restricting here, you usually are just going to be creating a greater need for more costly services down the road."
Mid-Plains served 3,200 people in Grand Island, Kearney and Lincoln last year. Francl added they currently have about 60 people on a waitlist for therapy services.
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Congress just avoided a partial government shutdown by approving a budget through the end of September, but a new blueprint is renewing debate about a key safety net program and advocates in North Dakota and elsewhere are worried.
For the 2025 fiscal year, a House caucus of more than 170 Republican lawmakers has issued a proposed outline. It includes raising the retirement age for Social Security eligibility "to account for increases in life expectancy."
Nancy Altman, president of the advocacy group Social Security Works, said, like past suggestions from the caucus, it should be considered a non-starter, arguing it essentially amounts to a benefit cut.
"You never catch up," Altman asserted. "Even if you work till age 70, your benefit's going to be about 7% lower than it is under current law."
There was no specific higher age outlined, but AARP North Dakota has also sounded the alarm about the plan, urging its members to demand "no cuts." Social Security faces financial headwinds a decade from now, but Altman supports President Joe Biden's calls for raising payroll taxes on the wealthy to help ensure the program stays fully funded. His skeptics argued it would not be enough.
However, Altman and other advocates think it is a good first step. The GOP framework also calls for reducing benefits for higher earners. No income threshold was provided but Altman suspects it would still hurt a lot of people who are not exactly wealthy in their retirement.
"It's not what many people would think," Altman contended. "They're certainly not Jeff Bezos and Bill Gates, and the billionaire class."
She predicted the people targeted for cuts would be more aligned with the middle class. Republicans insist the changes would not cut or delay benefits for any senior currently in or near retirement. North Dakota's lone Congressman, Rep. Kelly Armstrong, R-N.D., is part of the caucus behind the proposal.
Disclosure: AARP North Dakota contributes to our fund for reporting on Civic Engagement, Community Issues and Volunteering, Health Issues, Senior Issues. If you would like to help support news in the public interest,
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