CAMBRIDGE, Mass. - Why are the last two major Democratic primary candidates older white men? According to a Massachusetts Institute of Technology experiment, it's beyond their perceived "electability" against Trump: Many Americans misjudge others' level of bias.
Political science professor Regina Bateson conducted several experiments about peoples' perceptions of candidates based on gender and race in 2019 while she was at MIT - now, she's at the University of Ottawa. In one survey, Bateson asked a nationally representative sample if they thought other Americans would vote for a woman or person of color.
"People often overestimate others' levels of bias," says Bateson. "I think that's very much what's going on right now with this discussion of electability."
In her survey, respondents thought that 47% of other Americans wouldn't vote for a woman for president, and 42% wouldn't vote for a black person for president. But Bateson says that recent polls actually show those numbers as much lower: less than 10% of Americans say they wouldn't vote for a black or female president.
Bateson thinks this overestimation of bias, what she calls "strategic discrimination," could have impacted Massachusetts Democratic Sen. Elizabeth Warren's campaign.
Bateson mentions research that a firm called Avalanche Strategy did about the top Democratic primary candidates last June. At the time, the top three candidates were former Vice President Joe Biden and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, and Elizabeth Warren.
When asked who was most electable, Biden won. But then, respondents were asked a different question.
"But then if you could take a magic wand, and you could make your preferred candidate the most electable, or you could remove concerns about their electability, then who would you prefer? And in that case, that was where Warren saw a big increase in their results, which were from mid-2019," says Bateson.
According to this "magic wand" question, Warren won.
In Bateson's research, she also asked people to rate hypothetical candidates, and randomly switched their gender between male and female and race between white and black. The white male candidates did the best, and men-of-color candidates performed slightly worse.
White women performed worse at a statistically significant level, and black women candidates had the lowest scores. Bateson thinks this suggests that gender and racial bias intersectionally harm black female candidates.
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Republican Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton has emerged from a long court case with another win.
After nine years and multiple delays, prosecutors are going to drop securities fraud charges against the embattled official. As part of the deal, Paxton must perform 100 hours of community service, pay almost $300,000 in restitution and take advanced legal education courses.
Dan Cogdell, attorney for Ken Paxton, said they welcomed the deal.
"It is not a plea bargain, he didn't plead," Cogdell emphasized. "There is no admission of guilt, there will never be an admission of guilt, because he's not guilty."
In 2015, Paxton was accused of persuading investors to buy stock in a tech startup, without disclosing he would be compensated for the deal. He was also accused of steering clients to a friend's investment advising business without registering with the Texas State Securities Board.
The deal is the second recent legal ruling in Paxton's favor. Six months ago, he was acquitted on 16 corruption charges in an impeachment trial in the Texas Senate but he has not been cleared of all accusations against him. Paxton is being sued by four of his former deputies, who say they were fired after making reports to the FBI he was using his office to help a supporter.
Cal Jillson, professor of political science at Southern Methodist University, said the federal investigation will be handled differently.
"They're taking their time turning over all the rocks," Jillson observed. "If they think there has been illegal behavior on the part of the attorney general, that will be a much different process than the political process that we saw in the Texas Senate."
Despite his legal troubles, Paxton has remained a popular politician. He's been reelected two times since he was indicted. Prosecutors in the case said if Paxton does not comply with the terms of the deal, he could still be tried on the original fraud charges.
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The New Hampshire House passed a bill to eliminate any exceptions to the state's voter ID law and requires documented proof of citizenship in order to register.
The bill would eliminate "affidavit voting" for those without ID and give any registered voter the right to challenge a person's voter registration on Election Day.
Rep. Heath Howard, D-Strafford, said challenges would require the lowest burden of legal proof and could prevent eligible voters from casting a ballot.
"It doesn't seem logical to me or fair that somebody could walk into a polling place, sign an affidavit, and take away somebody else's right to vote," Howard stressed.
Howard explained people would have to visit a state superior court to reclaim their eligibility, an often lengthy and costly process. Supporters said the bill simply aims to solidify existing ID law and prevent voter fraud.
Voting-rights advocates said more than 2,000 Granite Staters without identification used affidavits to vote in the 2022 midterm election and strict voter ID laws disproportionately impact Black, Native, elderly and student voters.
Howard noted not everyone has their birth certificate, and passports or naturalization papers can take months to receive. He emphasized several state investigations of voter fraud in 2020 yielded zero criminal proceedings.
"I think that we've experienced enough of this nonsense when it comes to accusations of voter fraud," Howard asserted. "This is just further perpetuation of that's not necessarily grounded in facts."
Howard added the latest attempt to tighten ID requirements could also be in violation of the Help America Vote Act and National Voter Registration Act. A similar law in Kansas was struck down in 2020 by a federal appeals court as unconstitutional.
Support for this reporting was provided by The Carnegie Corporation of New York.
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More than 86,000 Wyoming voters have been purged from voter rolls, thanks to a state law requiring county clerks to remove people who did not vote in the most recent election, according to a new analysis by AARP Wyoming.
Wyoming is one of 20 states to purge inactive voters, a policy affecting more than one in three Americans.
Tom Lacock, associate state director for AARP Wyoming, said it is important for people who sat out the midterm elections to make sure their registration is up-to-date.
"For folks who have not voted during the 2022 election, it's really the right time now to get to their county clerk's office and register for the 2024 presidential election," Lacock emphasized.
The high number of purged Wyoming voters is largely attributed to higher than normal turnout in the 2020 presidential election followed by near record low turnout in the 2022 general election. Lacock noted county clerks typically send postcards to those being purged, encouraging voters to contact their clerk to remain registered.
Secretary of State Chuck Gray has also proposed changes to the state's voting rules, which could make it much harder for people who do not have a valid driver's license to vote, such as nursing home residents or older voters who have stopped driving. Lacock noted the window for early voting is also closing.
"The other big change this year is we're going to see the number of days that voters can participate in early voting dropped from 45 days to just 28 days," Lacock pointed out.
A new state law also changes how Wyoming voters can vote in primary elections. Lacock explained people must now pick which party's primary they want to vote in no later than May 15.
He encouraged all eligible voters to make sure they can participate in the upcoming November election, which will determine the makeup of half the U.S. Senate, the entire House of Representatives...
"... and the presidential election, all hitting in the same year," Lacock stressed. "This is really an opportunity to make sure that candidates understand what is important to you, and to stand up and be counted."
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