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Pulling back the curtains on wage-theft enforcement in MN; Trump's latest attack is on RFK, Jr; NM LGBTQ+ equality group endorses 2024 'Rock Star' candidates; Michigan's youth justice reforms: Expanded diversion, no fees.

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Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg says rebuilding Baltimore's Key Bridge will be challenging and expensive. An Alabama Democrat flips a state legislature seat and former Connecticut senator Joe Lieberman dies at 82.

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Historic wildfires could create housing and health issues for rural Texans, a Kentucky program helps prison parolees start a new life, and descendants of Nicodemus, Kansas celebrate the Black settlers who journeyed across the 1870s plains seeking self-governance.

Officials Weigh New Projections on NC’s COVID-19 Transmission Rate

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Thursday, April 9, 2020   

RALEIGH, N.C. -- A team of scientists has developed a new set of predictive models based on North Carolina's population, showing what might happen to the health care system if the state loosens up social distancing measures.

Mark Holmes, director of the Cecil G. Sheps Center for Health Services Research at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, says the models offer clues into how coronavirus infections spread throughout the state.

"Our best estimate today is that if we were to maintain some form of policies that would maintain transmission reduction like we're seeing currently, there would be roughly 250,000 North Carolinians infected by the end of May," he states. "If we were to fully relax the policies after April 29, this could triple to roughly three quarters of a million infected, or 750,000."

Holmes says the data is aimed at helping state leaders consider the trade-offs involved in reopening the economy versus overwhelming local health care systems, and also will guide public health officials working to implement a strategy aimed at reducing viral transmission in the months ahead.

The predictive modeling results also offer insight into how many people will need hospitalization.

"We project there is a small chance that by June 1, we will face gaps in our ability to meet existing demand,"
Holmes states. "If, on the other hand, we fully relax those policies, we would see a substantially higher chance of resource gaps, roughly 50%."

Holmes says that gap probably would continue to climb after the end of April if restrictions were lifted.


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