A new look at the most recent census data shows the child population in America has declined - and predicts ripple effects for the job market and education. The number of children recorded in the 2020 Census was just over 73 million, which is 1.1 million fewer children than the all-time high counted in the 2010 Census. The report from the Annie E. Casey Foundation shows fewer children in 27 states, and Puerto Rico.

The trend has become even more pronounced in the last two years, according to demographer and study co-author Bill O'Hare. He said this demographic reality will impact the workforce in the coming years.

"The fact that entry-level workers are going to be going down over the next 10 years - as older children are replaced by smaller birth cohorts - as the number of entry-level workers go down, it's going to be harder for employers to find the kind of people they need for jobs," he said.

The child population in Maryland has increased 1% over the decade, though Baltimore City saw a 15% decline, placing it in the top 10 cities seeing child population decreases.

Study authors point out that with fewer kids being born, maximizing the educational outcome for each child will be key in making sure the nation has enough skilled workers. The report shows the number of children enrolled from preschool to through high school fell by 2.6 million between 2010 and 2020.

"As the number of children decrease, it's feasible to say we can spend more money for each child - because the amount of money stays the same, the number of children go down, the average expenditure per child goes up. That's one way of looking at it - that it may be good for children, because now we can invest more in each child," said O'Hare, who added the educational system at a crossroads.

He warned it is also possible that as the number of households with children decreases, the political support for maintaining the current level of public investment in education may also decline.

A persistent child care worker shortage across New Hampshire is leaving families with few options.

The state is currently short more than 7,000 child care positions but low wages and burnout are driving workers from the field and forcing some centers to close.

Shannon Tremblay, director of the New Hampshire Child Care Advisory Council, said workers are struggling to care for their own families with wages barely above the federal poverty line.

"No one wants to come in for a low wage," Tremblay pointed out. "No one wants to come in making $15 an hour, working long hours in a stressful environment."

Tremblay argued greater state investment will create long-term benefits for both parents and children, some of whom may have disabilities or behavioral issues which could be identified earlier by trained child care staff.

Last year, state lawmakers invested more than $60 million in child care services, including $15 million for the creation of child care workforce grants and investments in the state's Family Resource Centers.

Tremblay emphasized the end of career and technical education programs in New Hampshire high schools broke the pipeline of workers entering the field, putting greater pressure on current staff to do it all.

"Our providers are the case manager, the cook, the plumber," Tremblay observed. "They want to provide that high-quality care and right now it's just, they can't do it."

Tremblay stressed pandemic-era funding to support the child care industry will run out in September, so state lawmakers need to act. She added the state could increase wages so the burden does not fall on New Hampshire families, who currently spend roughly $24,000 a year on care for two children under age five.

The child welfare system in Pennsylvania faces a staffing crisis affecting children and families throughout the system.

The Child Welfare Resource Center said about 30 counties report caseworker vacancy rates of 30% or higher

Terry Clark, president and CEO of the Pennsylvania Council of Children, Youth and Family Services, at a state Senate hearing on child welfare, challenged the Departments of Education and Human Services to work together to develop a STEM-focused model for human services. It could offer young people opportunities for training, apprenticeships and careers in child welfare, juvenile justice and behavioral health.

"We spend a lot of time focusing on colleges and universities," Clark noted. "But we believe we might want to back this up a little bit, and start looking at middle schools and high schools. Try to reinvigorate, get younger students motivated and trying to come into this field."

Clark pointed out some agencies have asked supervisors and even people from other departments to take on casework responsibilities. A recent Philadelphia study found Community Umbrella Agencies had an average 45% turnover rate, with vacancies ranging from 21-60 positions.

Clark observed private providers face workforce challenges similar to the county child welfare agencies. He emphasized counties are beginning to explore more contractual relationships with private providers for needed work.

"Counties are starting to put out RFPs, calls for private providers to help supplement their workforce," Clark stressed. "That means they're asking private providers to take on roles and functions that, in the past, were primarily done by counties themselves."

Clark argued competitive wages are seen as crucial to attract and retain child welfare workers, and county funding often falls short. He added student loan forgiveness and fellowship programs may be promising ways to bring new people into the field, but lawmakers would have to agree.

"There have been House bills and different Senate bills that have been introduced, or at least in draft form over the years," Clark acknowledged. "We hope that there's continued discussion about those, because if we can get some movement on those, we think those will really help."

He told legislators the turnover trends will not change significantly without increased investment in workers.

Despite a recent policy victory, Wisconsin labor leaders still express concern about the current environment for shielding young teens from unsafe work environments.

Gov. Tony Evers this month vetoed a bill which would have expanded the elimination of required work permits for those younger than 18. The bill's language applied to 14- and 15-year-olds, several years after the state did away with parental permission for 16- and 17-year-olds.

Stephanie Bloomingdale, president of the Wisconsin State AFL-CIO, said the recent debates are policy fights advocates thought they won decades ago when minors often worked in dangerous conditions. She cautioned there is a strong push to chip away at protections.

"We are seeing a growing movement from different, unscrupulous employers that want to put kids back in the workplace, and not have the kind of oversight that is needed," Bloomingdale contended.

The Economic Policy Institute said rollbacks have been approved in a dozen states in the past few years. While current efforts are thwarted in Wisconsin, Bloomingdale worries about similar debates in future sessions.

Meanwhile, violations are trending upward, with the U.S. Labor Department reporting an 83% increase in financial penalties. Backers of the Wisconsin bill said the goal was to reduce red tape for families.

Bloomingdale countered taking away another layer of protection does more to trample on the rights of parents and guardians. And with higher consumer prices placing more pressure on household budgets, she added some kids might feel the need to bring in additional income.

She emphasized the current law helps the whole family make an informed decision.

"It's important for kids to get a good work ethic," Bloomingdale acknowledged. "But at the same time, these kids need to make sure that they are getting enough sleep, that they are able to participate in their school, and really making sure that balance is there."

The Economic Policy Institute report showed amid the push in many states to weaken laws, several other states have advanced bills to strengthen protections. There have been bipartisan bills in Congress which, among other things, would crack down on violators.


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