Recent polling from The New York Times and Siena College found President Joe Biden trailing former President Donald Trump in five of the six most crucial battleground states, one of which is Nevada.

In the Silver State, Trump leads Biden by 10 percentage points.

Elaine Kamarck, director of the Center for Effective Public Management with the Brookings Institution, said despite polls showing Biden slipping, compounded with his unfavorable approval rating, does that mean voters won't vote for him and other Democrats in the upcoming election?

She says it isn't a simple answer.

"Maybe there is just no relationship between the president's popularity and down-ballot voting. That voters vote on very different things, and maybe because we have a 'president-centric' kind of culture, maybe we just get that wrong all the time," Kamarck explained.

While The New York Times-Siena College poll comprised just over 3,600 registered voters among all six states, Kamarck said other state-based polls, which struck fear in many Democrats, are composed only of about 600 participants, which she added are not likely to be grasping the entirety of voters' preferences and true attitudes.

Kamarck said looking at the special elections in 2021, the midterms in 2022 and the most recent set of elections this year, Biden's unpopularity doesn't have much to do with Democratic votes. She contends Democrats "over performed expectations" in all three years and increased their margins.

She argues abortion is a huge motivator for Democratic voters. This comes as a Nevada judge recently rejected a proposed 2024 ballot measure, supported by Nevadans for Reproductive Rights, which sought to enshrine reproductive rights, including abortion, in the state's constitution.

"Where the right to choose is front and center on the agenda, abortion is an incredibly powerful motivator. I think in my lifetime in politics, which has been pretty long, it is probably the biggest push I've ever seen, really," Kamarck said.

District Judge James T. Russell deemed the proposal to be too broad and sided with the Coalition for Children and Parents PAC, which sued last month to block the measure. Currently, anyone who is pregnant in Nevada has the right to an abortion within the first 24 weeks of pregnancy. An abortion may be performed after 24 weeks if deemed necessary to save the life of the mother.

Republicans in Washington, D.C. remain focused on greatly reducing federal spending. However, a backlash is mounting in Congressional districts, including Minnesota, and some constituents feel ignored. Whether it's executive orders by the Trump administration or budget votes taking shape in Congress, the dramatic downsizing of federal agencies, programs and services has led to heightened concern about the impact on a host of populations.

Brian Vroman, a Grand Rapids resident, said he's worried about the possibility of steep Medicaid cuts. He says even if it's uncomfortable for House Republicans, they still should have face-to-face conversations.

"There's a lot of pent-up anger, frustration and I think that the only way to alleviate that is to have open dialogue. We're not at war with each other," he explained.

Vroman's congressman, Rep. Pete Stauber, R-Duluth, could not be reached for comment. Protesters have gathered outside his office to demand a town hall. GOP leaders have urged a pause on such events to avoid the backlash while painting attendees of recent meetings as "paid activists." Vroman is part of a left-leaning grassroots group, but says he's not paid for his actions and has voted for both parties.

Sarah Jaynes, executive director of the Rural Democracy Initiative, said it's reasonable for voters in conservative districts, including those who consistently vote Republican, to feel blindsided by some of these moves and demand answers. She feels some of the organizing is having an effect.

"[Some] members of Congress are quietly speaking up, and ensuring that funding is continuing to move into their communities," she said.

National political publications have reported that some House GOP members have had "back channel" conversations with the White House to reverse cuts led by Trump adviser Elon Musk. While Democrats have criticized the manner and scope of spending reductions, they too are facing pressure to host more meetings to highlight voter frustration. Some Democrats are now holding town halls in GOP districts.

With Pennsylvania's primary election set for May 20, a nonpartisan group is working to raise awareness about voter registration.

Over 8.7 million Pennsylvanians are eligible to vote in municipal elections.

Amy Widestrom - the executive director of the League of Women Voters of Pennsylvania - said she is concerned about low turnout in local races, noting Montgomery County's 41.9% turnout in 2023.

She says one precinct saw less than 1% - only 379 voters. She emphasized the importance of voting for key positions.

"These are the people that are doing the business of our local counties and our local schools and our local judges and our state courthouses," said Widestrom. "And so these are extraordinarily important elections. And yet, in 2023 for the Supreme Court of Pennsylvania, we only got a 35% turnout."

She adds Pennsylvanians must register to vote by May 5 to cast a ballot in the primary, and the last day to apply for a mail-in-ballot is May 13.

Widestrom said low voter turnout has been an ongoing issue, especially in off-cycle elections like primaries and odd-year general elections.

She added that the League will host civic engagement events to educate voters on upcoming races.

"We'll be hosting a series of webinars called ballot box basics, highlighting both the importance of these municipal elections, but also, how do you learn about these candidates?" said Widestrom. "So we're going to host a webinar on judging our judges. How do we learn about the judicial candidates?"

Widestrom added that the League will be updating their website at Vote411.org with statewide candidate information before Pennsylvanians head to the polls or mail in their ballot.

More testimony was heard yesterday about term limit reforms in North Dakota, an issue voters around the state might have to decide again.

In 2022, North Dakota voters approved imposing term limits for state lawmakers and the governor. Legislators can no longer serve more than eight years in the House and Senate.

But a handful of bills this session call for another ballot question, to raise state lawmakers' term limit to 12 years.

Sen. Justin Gerhardt, R-Mandan, sponsor of one bill, said the new framework threatens the value of experience at the State Capitol.

"Our citizen-led Legislature meets for only 80 days every two years," Gerhardt pointed out. "By the time a new legislator gets a handle on the budget process, legislative rules and the needs of their district, they're already on their way out the door."

He added his bill also addresses the issue of lawmakers who are appointed to fill a seat. Opponents said the moves undermine the will of the voters.

A separate bill proposing a new statewide vote on the prospective changes will be heard this morning. If one of the measures advances to the ballot, it likely would come up in the 2026 general election.

Those who want term limits said they foster fresh voices in policymaking.

Kevin Herrmann, a resident of Beulah, is one of the many people to testify against the new reform efforts.

"This resolution is a way for legislators to get back their legislative power over the citizens of North Dakota," Herrmann contended.

Another thorny element to this debate is, the 2022 ballot question included language prohibiting state lawmakers from trying to force the issue down the road. One of the bills in question repeals the language in trying to get the question back on the ballot. Backers of the proposals acknowledge they are likely to draw court challenges over constitutional arguments.

Support for this reporting was provided by The Carnegie Corporation of New York.


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