As President-elect Donald Trump is sworn in next month, the farming community wonders if he'll follow through on tariff threats. One expert says for top soybean states like South Dakota, farmers aren't in a great position to withstand any fallout. The latest USDA farm income forecast paints a gloomy picture, with declines in commodity prices dragging things down. And the incoming administration appears poised to enact more tariffs - as it did during Trump's first term.
Ben Palen, director of the consulting firm Ag Management Partners, said this time around, there's increased political instability on the global front and greater export competition.
"I just don't think that you can have a coherent and consistent policy for agriculture if you go from one crisis to another," he said.
Trump regained strong support from agricultural counties in this election, but Palen said his fellow producers need to be prepared for what happens now that the votes have been counted. In Trump's first term, emergency aid was sent to farmers affected by the initial trade war. But Palen noted there is a strong push for the new administration to pursue budget cuts, so financial relief could be harder to come by.
Even though many farmers still back Trump, Palen feels this sector doesn't want to get swept up in trade rhetoric and have to be bailed out.
"I think farmers are very good at production," he continued. "It's just part of our DNA - we want to produce, produce, produce."
He argued it's up to policymakers to find new markets for farmers to sell their crops, as opposed to simply focusing on trade disputes. Other voices, such as the Texas Agriculture Commission, welcome the idea of new tariffs, saying the U.S. needs to hold firm against countries like China. In the first trade war, U.S. agricultural export losses exceeded $27-billion.
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Some experts predict arable land per person will shrink by two-thirds by 2050. To combat it, Michigan students are being trained in "smart" agriculture.
Researchers believe smart agriculture is a promising solution to food production challenges as land becomes scarce because of climate change and water shortages. It involves methods such as vertical farming and urban gardens, combined with technologies using sensors, drones and artificial intelligence to improve productivity and yield.
Sara Masoud, assistant professor of industrial and systems engineering at Wayne State University, leads a program training students in smart agriculture.
"One of the options that we are putting together in my lab, in order to expose the students to is something called the hydroponic system," Masoud explained. "The idea is that if you don't have access to good soil to grow your plants, you can be growing your plants in, for example, water."
Critics of smart farming contended automation could displace farmworkers and, along with the high cost of technologies such as drones and AI, leave small-scale or low-income farmers behind.
They also worry farmers may rely too much on technology, which could be problematic if systems fail or there are disruptions such as data breaches or software glitches. Masoud believes the students' training in smart agriculture will help prepare them for the future.
"Hoping that this exposure is not only going to let them see what's in smart agriculture, but also help them to gain expertise, for example, in data science, or advance technologies that might help them even if they are not pursuing a smart agriculture in the future," Masoud added.
As of 2023, about 68% of large crop farms in the United States use precision agriculture technologies, which are needed for smart farming.
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The Ending Agricultural Trade Suppression Act would have prevented states from enforcing their own agricultural regulations, but has failed to advance in Congress this session.
While the measure was excluded from the most recent Farm Bill extension, food policy advocates warn that efforts to revive it remain a concern, particularly for Mississippi's agricultural industry.
Rebecca Wolf, senior food policy analyst with Food and Water Watch, called the legislation a direct attack on states' rights to regulate their own food systems.
"The EATS Act would preempt state regulation of the factory farm and agribusiness industry. This includes animal welfare, consumer protection, labeling and food-safety laws and regulations, and the bill is so broad that it could also jeopardize state laws that protect rural communities and preserve our environment," Wolf said.
The bill, introduced in response to California's Proposition 12, which bans the sale of pork products from pigs raised in tightly confined gestation crates, was backed by major agribusiness groups.
Supporters argue that it is essential for maintaining a unified national agricultural market and preventing individual states from imposing regulations that could disrupt interstate commerce. Critics argue that the measure would've gone far beyond its stated intent, effectively overriding state agricultural policies nationwide.
Wolf said Mississippi's agricultural sector, which plays a vital role in the state's economy, could face significant consequences if similar legislation is reintroduced. She raised concerns that eliminating local control over agricultural standards could hurt small farmers and expose consumers to products that do not meet higher state-enforced safety and welfare regulations.
"When it comes to food safety, it's a really big concern right now with the avian flu, the kinds of standards in which animals are raised and really big concern being overcrowding of animals," she continued.
Advocacy groups view the bill's exclusion from the latest Farm Bill as a victory, but Wolf warns the fight isn't over.
Sen. Roger Marshall, R-Kan., a sponsor, argued, "Congress shouldn't allow any one state to single-handedly upend the country's agricultural economy and force the American people to bear the burden of higher food prices."
Wolf highlights the success of a bipartisan group of 171 lawmakers who opposed the EATS Act in the 2023 Farm Bill.
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Conservation groups are celebrating the end of a Massachusetts-based biotech company's pursuit of bringing genetically altered Atlantic salmon to market.
AquaBounty was the first company to get regulatory approval from the Food and Drug Administration to sell a genetically modified animal for human consumption in 2015, but it faced continuous legal challenges and consumer pushback.
Dana Perls, food and technology senior program manager with Friends of the Earth, said people just don't want to eat it.
"Grocery stores are refusing to sell it," said Perls. "Big restaurants are refusing to sell it. So, it's a market response."
Perls said the altered salmon put wild salmon - along with the fishing and Indigenous communities that rely on it - at risk.
In a statement, AquaBounty says it failed to raise enough capital to maintain its operations.
AquaBounty's AquaAdvantage brand salmon contained added genes from both Chinook salmon and the eel-like ocean pout to make it grow faster.
But polls show most Americans believe genetically engineering animals for protein production isn't an appropriate use of biotechnology.
Perls said consumers are increasingly rejecting industrial food production, and demanding their food be clearly and accurately labeled.
"People want to be able to choose what it is they're eating and what they're feeding their families," said Perls, "and we need to ensure that the food we raise is truly healthy, truly sustainable, and fully regulated for safety."
Perls said the demise of AquaBounty salmon will set a precedent for other companies investing in genetically altered animals.
At least 35 fish species are currently being modified around the world, including trout, catfish, and striped bass. The FDA has also approved genetically altered pigs and cows for food and medical use.
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