By Vanessa Davidson / Broadcast version by Farah Siddiqi reporting for the Kent State NewsLab-Ohio News Connection Collaboration.

“As Ohio goes, so goes the nation” is a saying that rang true for many presidential election cycles. Ohio was a key swing state for decades, voting with the winner of U.S. presidential elections every year from 1960 until 2020. 

But since 2012, the margin of voters in favor of Republican presidential candidates has steadily increased. In 2012, around 47.7% of Ohio voters favored the Republican presidential candidate, followed by 51.7% in 2016 and 53.3% in 2020. 

In 2024, Donald Trump won 55.2% of Ohio votes. 

Experts cite a variety of reasons for that shift — including a decline in the power of labor unions, fewer college-educated voters than the national average and the effectiveness of the Republican Party’s campaign methods.

“Because we were a big manufacturing state, and because manufacturing jobs did usually require a college education, it wasn't necessary for a lot of Ohioans to get a college degree,” said former Ohio Governor Bob Taft, now a professor at The University of Dayton . 

“And you know, one of the key breaks now between Republican voters and Democrat voters is Republicans are doing a lot better with and particularly Trump is doing a lot better with voters without a college degree,” he said. “So I think that too is one of the factors that explains why Ohio has become so red as a state.”

Like many of the states that surround it, Ohio is what’s known as a Rust Belt state. With the flourishing of automotive and manufacturing industries, many blue-collar jobs emerged between the 19th century and the 20th century.

However, throughout the later half of the 20th century and early 21st century, factories gradually closed, taking manufacturing and supporting jobs with them. As a result, numbers in labor unions dwindled, causing a lack of resources and campaigning — a hit that impacted the strategy of the Democratic Party.

“Organized labor was a big part of the Democratic strength in Ohio when I first entered politics, because the labor unions had to have more members,” said Taft.

Taft was governor of Ohio from 1999 to 2007, representing the Republican Party. Ted Strickland, a Democrat, served one term after Taft. All Ohio’s governors since 2011 have been Republicans. 

Unions at that time, Taft said, “Had more resources. They actively engaged in political campaigns, generally on behalf of Democratic candidates. We still have labor unions which still have some members, but it's not on the scale that it used to be, say, 20 or 30 years ago.”

Ohio’s working class sought out support and representation after the 2007 recession, and still continue to by voting for candidates that prioritize their needs. The focus on blue-collar workers was key to former President Barack Obama’s consecutive wins in 2008 and 2012. 

“Obama did carry Ohio twice, but Obama was, I think, perceived as a change candidate, someone that would make things better,” Taft said. “And so, he was able to appeal to a broader group of voters than a Democrat might normally appeal to in Ohio.”

Donald Trump's victory in 2024 has also been partly attributed to his focus on promising change and speaking towards the working class. 

Social media has also played a role in Trump’s victories since he was able to reach broader audiences, said Dr. Lauren Copeland, the director of Community Research Institute at Baldwin Wallace University.

“Social media has played a large role in creating divisiveness in society, and at the same time, it's also provided candidates — such as former President Trump and now incoming President Trump — with platforms to directly reach out to their base without having to go through the media,” Copeland said. 

“I don't think that Trump would have succeeded as much as he did in 2016 had he not used Twitter effectively to reach his base.”

College degrees have also had a big impact on the way Ohioans vote. People with college degrees are more likely to vote Democrat than people without college degrees. 

Voters without degrees lean toward Republicans. According to the Pew Research Center, around 63% of Republican voters in 2022 did not have college degrees, compared to 49% of Democratic voters.

This divide in education represents a broader perspective. Often, people without college degrees prioritize issues like immigration and job security, which are topics that align with more conservative policies.

“People without a four-year college degree tend to be more conservative than people who have a four-year degree, or especially an advanced degree,” said Copeland.

According to 2023 census data, 32% of Ohioans have bachelor’s degrees, 4.2 percentage points below the national average of 36.2%. 

Racial demographics also play a part in how a community votes. Outside of major cities where the majority of people of color live — like Cleveland, Columbus, Cincinnati, Akron, Toledo and Dayton — all other counties in Ohio voted red in 2024.

“People who are nonwhite, such as African Americans, tend to be more liberal than their white counterparts,” said Copeland. 

In 2023, 76.7% of Ohioans were white, compared to 58.4% of Americans overall. 

“When you have a state like Ohio that has a lot less diversity than, say, other states like Illinois, New York, or even some of the states in the southwest, then you're going to have a climate in which Republicans are going to be more likely to win,” Copeland said.

With these many different factors influencing Ohio’s political landscape, Ohio’s future as a swing state is questionable. 

“Ohio will still be overall, in all probability, a Republican state, but… not as Republican as a state like Montana,” said Taft. “So I think a Democrat will win, potentially statewide, in Ohio. But it's a little uphill for the Democrat Party.”


This collaboration is produced in association with Media in the Public Interest and funded in part by the George Gund Foundation.


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Massachusetts Democrats hope a virtual "listening tour" will help clarify voters' rightward shift in last year's election.

While Vice President Kamala Harris easily won the deep-blue state with more than 60% of the vote, President-elect Donald Trump improved his 2020 results by roughly four percentage points, flipping dozens of towns he previously lost.

Steve Kerrigan, chairman of the Massachusetts Democratic Party, said it is time for the party to regroup.

"Shares of the vote in Fall River certainly shifted and other pockets of the Commonwealth," Kerrigan pointed out. "We cannot just rest on our laurels and look at the victories without looking at opportunities for growth."

Kerrigan noted the virtual listening tour will include each of the state's nine congressional districts and their representatives, and will run through Feb. 13. Interested voters can register online at the state Democratic Party's website.

Republican gains in Massachusetts mirrored national trends, including significant swings in majority-Latino communities. The state GOP also managed to flip three state legislative seats. Still, Democrats easily reelected their entire congressional delegation and maintained wide majorities on Beacon Hill.

Kerrigan emphasized it is concerning that 145,000 fewer voters turned out last year compared with 2020.

"Sitting out an election should not be an option," Kerrigan contended. "When our voice isn't heard, election results might not result the way you want them to be and we've got to push back against that sort of apathy."

Kerrigan stressed Democrats want to hear from voters while the president-elect dictates the Republican Party's agenda. Some progressives are pushing Democrats to "redefine" what being a blue state means. They are calling for an increase in the minimum wage, an accelerated transition to a green economy and Medicare for All, which has already been approved in dozens of local nonbinding ballots.

Support for this reporting was provided by Carnegie Corporation of New York.


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More than 12,000 people nationwide have shown interest in wanting to learn more about running for office since last year's election and the share coming from battleground states like Nevada has grown by about 50%.

Jordan Haines, chief technology officer for the nonprofit Run for Something, said his organization has noticed the majority of people entering their candidate pipeline postelection Day have been women. He added they are seeing interest in offices at the local and communitywide level such as sheriff and school board positions.

"Those are really important because they are going to be the first line of defense against immigration policy, against cutting a federal education department," Haines explained. "I think hopeful for two reasons: One, building the bench and two, building local power now."

While female representation on Capitol Hill diminished slightly compared to last year, Haines pointed out it is not the case for states like Nevada. It is one of three states where more than half of its legislators are women, according to the Center for American Women and Politics.

Haines added it is too early to know exactly what motivated the more than 12,000 potential candidates nationwide but it is something his organization will keep an eye on. If you are interested in learning more about running for state or local office, you can visit RunForWhat.net.

Haines emphasized his organization will continue to get more people of diverse backgrounds and lived experiences to run for office. He said they not only help guide people along the way but help them determine the best office for which to run. He stressed prep work is crucial.

"A lot of the Run for Something alums, they ran initially to try and solve some problem in their community," Haines recounted. "We are always looking for that, looking for like what really motivates people to get into the race, what office they're looking to run for, if that office has the power to solve the problem that they're trying to solve."

Haines acknowledged for many in Nevada and around the country, November's election results were anything but ideal. But he said change takes time, which is something he and others are working toward.

"We have people in Congress who are Run for Something alumni. That is hope," Haines added. "That is like medium term hope. It takes years and election cycles for that to happen."


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Virginia lawmakers begin their legislative session today but with elections ahead in November, passing bills may be more difficult this year.

Democrats are interested in beginning the process of passing constitutional amendments on voting rights, marriage equality and reproductive rights this year. The Virginia General Assembly must pass a constitutional amendment twice, in two different legislative sessions, then the amendment would go to voters for approval.

Kate Seltzer, state politics reporter for the Norfolk Virginian-Pilot, said a major priority for state Republicans will be tax relief, particularly relief from the annual Vehicle Personal Property Tax, known as the "car tax."

"State Republicans are endorsing an end to the car tax, or taking some incremental steps to end the car tax, which they described as the 'most hated tax since the Boston tea tax.' It is an unpopular tax," Seltzer explained.

It is unpopular because it costs people who own or lease a vehicle just over $4 for each $100 of their car's value as of Jan. 1 each year. Democrats, however, are concerned about school and local government funding if the car tax is repealed. One poll last year found more than 60% of Virginians wanted to see it repealed.

Other Republican priorities include raising criminal penalties for breaking laws involving firearms and drugs.

Seltzer noted the elections coming up later this year may lead to both sides digging in and wanting to deliver key parts of their agendas to their bases.

"The sort of cynical school of thought is that everybody will promote their own legislative priorities," Seltzer observed. "What they will then do is go back to their constituents and explain, 'Well, this is what we tried to do. This is what the other party did to prevent you from having this.' And then, they'll use that in the gubernatorial election."

Elections for governor, lieutenant governor, attorney general and the entire state House of Delegates will be held this November.


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