COLUMBUS, Ohio – A special election Tuesday in Ohio is drawing national attention as some experts say it's a bellwether for President Donald Trump. Voters will choose between Republican Troy Balderson or Democrat Danny O'Conner for the 12th Congressional District seat, left vacant by Republican Pat Tiberi.

An assistant professor of Political Science at the University of Dayton, Christopher Devine, explains the Columbus-area district has traditionally been Republican-held and was won by President Trump in 2016.

"This is one where Republicans should win," he says. "If, however, a Democrat were to win the race instead, it would be seen as an indication that Democrats are particularly strong this year, that there is a backlash against President Trump such that they might take at least the House in the November mid-terms."

Democrats need to win 23 seats in the November mid-terms to regain control of the House.

Polling from Monmouth University shows Balderson with a slight lead over O'Connor, which has some experts expecting a Democratic win. However, Devine says predictions are not reliable for special elections like this.

"What polling there is and what other indicators there are is such as early voting statistics seem to point to Democratic enthusiasm, and certainly it's getting a lot of national attention and national money but it's just really hard to tell who's going to turn out, he adds."

Tiberi resigned in January, one year before the end of his term. Voters will be filling the interim seat today, and will then again vote in November to fill the seat for the next two-year term.

This collaboration is funded in part by Media in the Public Interest and the George Gund Foundation.


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Montana Gov. Greg Gianforte has seen the last few bills of the 2025 legislative session cross his desk and as the ink dries, policy experts reminded Montanans some bills will face the courts before they take effect.

Gianforte signed Senate Bill 490, which changes the Election Day cutoff for same-day voter registration from 8 p.m. to noon. It also eliminates early registration the Monday before Election Day, shifting the deadline to 5 p.m. on Saturday.

Zuri Moreno, state legislative director for the advocacy group Forward Montana, said the change especially affects Montanans who drive long distances to vote.

"We've already heard from the courts that you're not supposed to mess around with same-day voter registration," Moreno pointed out. "It just takes away that opportunity for working folks and young folks and rural people across the state."

Montana's Supreme Court ruled last year banning same-day voter registration is unconstitutional. In January, the U.S. Supreme Court declined to hear a challenge to the decision.

Laws passed this session may still be challenged in court, including those centered on the LGBTQ+ community, which was targeted by at least 23 bills. Moreno noted the "community really showed up this session."

"We saw so many folks sharing personal stories and public testimony, so many folks showing up for lobby days and rallies," Moreno recounted. "Thousands of people engaged in the legislative process, which is essential."

In a win for renters, Gianforte also signed House Bill 311 , which requires rental application fees to be returned to people who do not end up signing a lease.

During every big election, tens of thousands of California voters make a mistake on their mail-in ballot and often get differing advice on how to fix it, depending on who they ask. A new bill aims to standardize the response.

Assembly Bill 1072 would require the Secretary of State and county elections officials to come up with clear answers, applicable statewide.

Kim Alexander, founder and president of the California Voter Foundation, said the problem causes widespread delays in counting.

"In Orange County in the last election, officials had to duplicate over 40,000 ballots," Alexander pointed out. "There are other reasons why ballots have to be duplicated, but the primary one is that the voter made a mistake filling out their ballot, indicated a different choice, and it has to be remade."

Common mistakes include accidentally filling in the wrong bubble, signing the witness signature box or signing their spouses' envelope. If there is time, the county will often send a new ballot.

Alexander noted a common set of instructions should be posted on the website of the Secretary of State and every county registrar.

"They are instructed, typically, to cross out the choice and fill out the choice that they preferred and draw an arrow to it or circle it to indicate that is their intent," Alexander explained. "What they should not do is initial it, and sometimes voters think that's what they should do."

The outlook for the bill is good. It is currently on the consent calendar for the Assembly Appropriations Committee.


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An Indiana debate over history and power is growing. Lt. Gov. Micah Beckwith recently defended the Three-Fifths Compromise in a social media video. The compromise counted enslaved people as three-fifths of a person for representation and taxes.

Beckwith called it a "great move" for America at the time, and praised the group WallBuilders, describing them as the "gold standard" for teaching U.S. history.

The Indiana Citizen investigated both claims. Publisher Bill Moreau called on Hoosiers to pay attention.

"We have been working on a project since the first of the year that we called: 'One Heartbeat Away: Do Christian nationalists have an agenda for Indiana?' Lt. Gov. Beckwith is literally one heartbeat away from being governor," he said.

If Beckwith became governor, he could shape education policy. That includes choosing textbooks. The Indiana Citizen's report found WallBuilders promotes views rejected by most historians. Some Hoosiers agree with Beckwith and say his views reflect America's religious roots.

Moreau encouraged Hoosiers to stay informed and take a closer look at the history Beckwith promotes.

"Understand what Lt. Gov. Beckwith said about the Three-Fifths Compromise," he added. "How he attributes that analysis to this group called WallBuilders - which he considers to be 'the gold standard for learning the real history of America.'"


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