A recent study shows Maryland's electric grid is well positioned to manage the transition to electrification as outlined in the state's climate goals.
In the 2022 Climate Solutions Now Act, the state pledged to achieve net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2045.
The act also directed the Public Service Commission to study energy production and distribution capacity to determine if the transition away from fossil fuels for space and water heating would strain the grid.
The report assessed the impact by looking at three different electrification scenarios, and estimated demand growth would be at most just over 2% per year between now and 2031.
Lead study author Sanem Sergici, Ph.D. - the principal at the The Brattle Group - said these peak demand scenarios appear modest next to growth rates seen in the past.
"We think that this will be quite manageable, especially if you compare it to the growth that Maryland's system has experienced in the past," said Sergici. "We looked back 40 years, and we have seen periods in which Maryland peak demand has grown at 4%, 5%."
She said utilities were able to increase capacity in the 1980s without large price hikes to ratepayers.
Electricity demand currently peaks in the summer, but the report anticipates the electrification of heating will cause a switch to winter peaking by the end of 2027.
The study focused on electrification in residential single and multifamily housing and large office buildings.
Assuming the widespread adoption of heat pumps in coming years, the study looked at three scenarios in which backups for the coldest hours of the year are maintained.
Scenario 1 assumes the continued use of heating oil or propane as backup, and would result in the smallest increase in load demand per year at just over 0.5%.
Scenario 2 posits the use of cold-climate heat pumps, which do not require backup - their impact on demand is just over 1% per year.
Continued use of baseboard heating is assumed in scenario 3 and would increase demand just over 2%. The report looked at the system as a whole and does not say when and where upgrades will be needed.
Sergici said the study conclusions do not mean no investment will be necessary.
"Even though this is manageable at the system level," said Sergici, "utilities should be doing their own detailed and very granular distribution planning studies to figure out where they will need to expand the capacity of the grid early on, so that they can get ahead of some of those challenging problems. "
The report also says that with more energy-efficiency and load-flexibility incentives, the state could see reductions in demand of as much as 1% per year, offsetting at least part of the load growth from electrification.
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A federal agency today is expected to announce reforms related to the power grid, which is stretched thin as the nation transitions away from fossil fuels.
It's a complex issue clean-energy advocates in the Midwest know far too well.
There's a push to expand transmission lines to accommodate the tidal wave of wind, solar, and other renewable projects.
Rules being unveiled could address the thorny issue of cost-sharing among states for the build-out.
More broadly, the Midwest Renewable Energy Association's Executive Director Nick Hylla said market dynamics are tricky - noting competing interests among utilities and developers in expanding the grid.
He said another issue is protecting wildlife.
"The history of management of transmission lines isn't some solid track record from an environmental-conservation point of view," said Hylla. "We could be doing a much better job in transmission corridors."
In these cases, decarbonization groups and conservationists are at odds with each other. Notably, a recent court ruling is allowing a transmission line project involving Wisconsin to advance.
Hylla said "non-wire alternatives" are emerging to help the movement without turning to the grid.
In Minnesota, Xcel Energy has been testing a program that incentivizes customers to curb energy use during peak demand.
Similar programs are taking shape elsewhere, but industry analysts say these initiatives are navigating their own barriers as they try to get off the ground.
Still, Hylla said an example of this approach along the East Coast is turning some heads.
"It's a BYOB program - Bring Your Own Battery program - that now, over 24,000 customers in three eastern states have subscribed to," said Hylla. "It's basically a subsidy to put a battery in your house and just to make sure that you're not using electricity in peak times. "
As governments, utilities and other entities face pressure to meet climate goals amid soaring demand for electricity, Hylla suggested these solutions will have to work hand-in-hand.
His group is focused on efficiencies, such as rooftop solar, to reshape the distribution of energy.
But he said large-scale renewable projects play a role, too, including the economic benefits for communities in which they're located.
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Wisconsin's clean-energy portfolio is growing. Communities seeing the transition happen at their doorstep might get benefits, but sometimes have questions about the scope of these projects. A new grant could help deliver the facts.
The University of Wisconsin-Madison Extension has received a $1 million federal grant to educate towns and cities about large-scale solar, wind and similar development in their areas. Under state law, projects of at least 100 megawatts don't need local approval.
Sherrie Gruder, the extension's sustainable design specialist and energy strategist, said the outreach strikes a balance between boosting the clean-energy transition and factoring in local feedback from community interests.
"Looking at endangered species in the area - will they be protected - to what happens to the water in the wells when the land isn't being farmed for that time?" she said.
Gruder said they'll also use the listening sessions to help dispel misinformation about renewable energy. Also, residents can learn about the economic benefits that trickle down to their government, creating discussions about how to spend that revenue. This type of engagement comes as hundreds of locally adopted restrictions for wind and solar development surface around the United States.
Gruder said another important form of guidance is tips on lease agreements between landowners and project developers. She noted that they want these individuals to be able to ask the right questions.
"Not all farmers are going to spend $300 to $500 an hour to talk with an attorney," she added, "but we could help educate them on that type of thing."
A coalition of Wisconsin organizations will assist with the outreach. According to the extension, the Badger State currently has 33 large-scale solar developments in place or under development in 21 counties.
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With less than a month left in the New York Legislature's session, environmentalists are pushing for the HEAT Act's passage.
Last-minute stalling from the Assembly kept it from being in the 2025 budget. The bill phases out gas line extension allowances and gives the Public Service Commission authority to align utility companies with the state's climate laws.
Lisa Marshall, advocacy and organizing director for New Yorkers for Clean Power, said lawmakers have no time to play politics with the state's climate future "in a time where we've had the hottest year on record, record-breaking floods, our train system flooded out, air that children can't go outside and play and breathe for weeks on end. And, they can't see it's necessary to crack down and get to work and start to move the climate plan forward, then that's on them."
Passing the bill has faced misinformation campaigns from fossil-fuel companies and some skepticism from lawmakers about relying entirely on electricity. They have argued it's not useful if the power goes out, but infrastructure would prevent many fossil-fuel energy sources from working correctly with the power out, too. Gov. Kathy Hochul has said she'll sign the bill if the Legislature passes it.
Reports show New York won't reach its 2030 climate goals because of clean-energy projects falling through and climate legislation failing to pass.
Michael Hernandez, New York policy director for Rewiring America, noted that the Public Service Commission and utilities are required by law to build out gas pipes, keeping New Yorkers stuck on fossil fuels. He said the HEAT Act changes that.
"This is the way forward," he said. "This provides the pathway where we can start to consider what are the other ways that we can innovate and improve our energy infrastructure."
The HEAT Act could cut utility bills nearly in half for one in four energy-burdened New Yorkers. Some shortcomings for New York's climate goals include three offshore wind projects recently being canceled because of "material modifications."
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