LANSING, Mich. - It's not a crystal ball, but a group of researchers say a new tool can help Michigan and other states grapple with predicting and planning for the most cost-effective and least risky ways to cut back on coal.

Douglas Jester with the consulting group Five Lakes Energy says in order to meet the requirements of the Clean Power Plan, states will either need to increase their use of natural gas, or rely on renewable energy sources like wind and solar.

But given fluctuating prices and rapidly changing technology, figuring out which way to go can be a bit of a gamble.

"Whichever path we choose, we're placing a bet on future prices, particularly of natural gas," says Jester.

Researchers at the University of Michigan's Energy Institute, along with Jester and his team, developed a model to help states take into account every factor in determining the best plan for utilities and ratepayers. Using that tool, Jester calculates the state could retire far more coal-fired power plants and reduce air pollution by replacing coal with natural gas, as opposed to renewable sources - provided natural gas prices stay low.

Jester says the issue is further complicated by the fact the decisions states will make won't happen in a vacuum, as the price of fuel, and to some extent, technology, will depend on demand.

"If a lot of states follow the path of converting from coal to natural gas, that will significantly increase the consumption of natural gas, and raise the price of natural gas," he says.

The Clean Power Plan calls for states to reduce power plant carbon emissions by 30 percent from 2005 levels by 2030.

In a recent address, Governor Rick Snyder said he'd like to have between 30 and 40 percent of Michigan's energy needs met by a combination of renewable energy and reducing energy waste through energy-efficiency efforts over the next 10 years.


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Minnesota is coming off another windy month of April. Those strong wind gusts may have translated into some extra cash for counties with wind turbines dotting the landscape.

Minnesota has a wind and solar energy production tax, which allows jurisdictions where these systems are located to collect revenue based on the energy that's generated.

Nobles County brought in nearly $2 million in 2023, the third highest in the state.

County Commissioner Gene Metz said over time, this extra financial stream has helped cover maintenance costs.

"We did a ten year bond basically to upgrade our buildings," said Metz. "You know, we had roofs that needed work - outside, windows, that type of thing. And we upgraded a lot of our heating and technology controlling those systems."

He said it's helpful since smaller counties have a harder time attracting larger industries to help spur economic growth.

While it's become a solid income source, Metz said turbines taken out of operation for repairs, or less windy seasons can make the numbers vary in certain years.

Minnesota supporters also are eyeing bipartisan legislation to speed up the permitting process for these energy projects, in hopes it will open up much-needed space on the power grid.

Metz, also a member of the Rural Minnesota Energy Board, said he feels addressing that issue will lead to more wind farms.

He added that having additional dollars trickle down takes pressure off local taxpayers because county budgets won't be so one-dimensional.

"We depend so much on agriculture," said Metz. "In our county, 75% of the tax levy comes from agriculture, and if that has a bad year or bad period, it's just nice to have another source of income. "

While some counties have embraced renewables, local governments elsewhere have put up more resistance as proposed projects come on board.

Metz said some of that is driven by misinformation.

He advises planning officials and constituents - worried about seeing wind farms harming aesthetics on the rural landscape - to compare them with other industries that take up more space and have deeper effects on the quality of life.




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Minnesota is a leader in renewable energy - getting 54% of its electricity from zero-carbon sources last year, according to the 2024 Minnesota Energy Factsheet released today. The annual report comes from Clean Energy Economy Minnesota and the Business Council for Sustainable Energy.

Amelia Cerling-Hennes, managing director of public affairs with Clean Energy Economy Minnesota, said that's 12% better than the national average.

"We're really pleased to see about 600 megawatts of wind and solar getting added, and we're anticipating that that's going to be even higher next year as some of the large utility-scale projects that are being built right now kind of come online," she said.

Carbon emissions from the power sector also dropped 54% in 2023 with the retirement of part of the Sherco coal-fired power plant. Electric vehicle registrations went up 55%. Last year, Minnesota-based Cummins began shipping electrolyzers, which generate energy from hydrogen.

Andy Kim, president of the civil engineering firm EVS in Eden Prairie, said battery storage will be increasingly paired with large-scale solar projects in the future.

"You get uninterrupted power, you improve grid stability, and ultimately, it will lead to cost savings. And we see battery storage on at least half of our projects right now. And I would not be surprised if within the next two years, we see it on 80-90% of our projects," Kim said.

Cerling-Hennes adds the state made big strides policy-wise in 2023.

"So much happened last year, starting with passing 100% clean energy by 2040. And then following that up with a really historic energy omnibus bill. We created the Minnesota Climate Innovation Finance Authority. We funded high-voltage transmission," she said.

Tara Narayanan, lead analyst for North American regional trends with Bloomberg New Energy Finance, said energy efficiency is working - electricity consumption went down even as productivity went up. However, she notes that we need to ramp up the clean-energy transition even faster if we are to meet the goals set by the Paris Accords.

"Compare where we are going against where the U.S. has committed to go, we're really not on track. We're really going to have to make dramatic efforts in order to get to where we had committed to be in 2013," Narayanan said.

The state got $800 million in climate funding from President Joe Biden's infrastructure bill and the Inflation Reduction Act.


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New federal funding aims to revolutionize solar energy access within New Mexico's Native American communities and benefit the state overall.

The Environmental Protection Agency's $7 billion "Solar for All" program is designed to create new or expanded low-income solar programs.

Talia Martin, co-executive director of the National Tribal Program for GRID Alternatives, said the funding will help bridge the clean energy gap in Native American communities.

"In New Mexico, tangible impacts would be for household savings," Martin explained. "Which means working directly with the tribes to ensure that the savings are going to individual households as well as to the community as a whole."

According to Martin, the $62 million EPA grant awarded to the GRID Tribal Program is its largest ever. Nationwide, the agency's program is set to help at least 4,700 households in Native American communities. Across the U.S., the EPA said the program will enable more than 900,000 low-income households and disadvantaged communities to benefit from distributed solar energy.

Martin emphasized the program will allow GRID to help bolster solar storage capabilities and implement essential upgrades, while at the same time advancing their mission to support the self-determined efforts of Native American tribes to deploy clean energy on tribal lands, arguing it will be important to recruit contractors who understand the needs of tribal communities they're working with.

"It's an amazing window for Indian Country to be involved in energy development," Martin pointed out. "We want to just help foster all these relationships that it is going to take to do that."

The state of New Mexico also received a grant of $156 million from the program to overcome existing barriers to widespread adoption of distributed solar generation. In addition to the federal money for solar, Array Technologies announced last week it will build a new $50 million solar manufacturing campus near Albuquerque.