The amount of income tax Kentucky residents pay is slated to decrease slightly beginning next year, but experts say the Federal Reserve's decision to hike interest rates has set the stage for an impending recession, and they're concerned more tax cuts could drain the state budget and impact critical public services.

Jason Bailey, executive director of the Kentucky Center for Economic Policy, said the state uses tax funds to help communities rebuild from natural disasters. He argued given the level of devastation from the recent flooding in eastern Kentucky, the state must be able to help provide safe housing, water access and other basic needs for thousands of people as winter approaches.

"The damage in eastern Kentucky from the flooding was extensive," Bailey observed. "There are about 1,600 homes that were destroyed, bridges and schools that need to be replaced. And the federal government provides some resources but not nearly enough given the scale of the disaster there."

Earlier this year, the Republican-controlled state Legislature voted to override the governor's veto of House Bill 8, legislation outlining the gradual reduction of the state's current 5% individual income tax rate down to 4.5% next year, with potential future reductions down the road, based on the amount of money in Kentucky's general fund.

Bailey acknowledged Kentucky has padded its rainy-day fund with a $943 million surplus, but he cautioned permanent tax cuts going disproportionately to the wealthy will ultimately take money away from public schools, health care access and transportation, if a recession hits.

"These tax cuts will go overwhelmingly to the wealthy at a time when everyday Kentuckians need state services to help buffer what could be a painful recession," Bailey contended.

He pointed to child care as an example of how state dollars from taxes could be used to help prop up the child care industry statewide and help families already struggling with inflation and high gas prices.

"About half of Kentuckians live in a child care desert," Bailey pointed out. "We've seen child care centers shut down throughout the state. People can't afford it. And it's not sustainable."

American Rescue Plan Act funds for child care centers expire in 2024. According to a recent survey by the Prichard Committee, 72% of child care centers in the Commonwealth said they would increase tuition without the additional federal funding. About 22% said they would shut their doors.

The long-delayed Farm Bill could benefit Virginia farmers by renewing funding for climate-smart investments, but it's been held up for months in Congress.

Some lawmakers want this bill to expand funding for such programs as the Environmental Quality Incentives Program, or EQIP, which gives financial and technical help to farmers and ranchers to make conservation a priority. About $250 million was allocated for the program, but more than 9,000 applications were submitted, bringing it to $475 million.

Gabrielle Walton, federal campaign associate with the Chesapeake Climate Action Network, said these programs' popularity proves their necessity.

"This money allows them not only to practice more efficiently - and to preserve the environment that they love so much and they're so attached to - but it also saves them money that they can devote to other concerns," she said, "and provides them stability for their pocketbooks going forward."

One issue with the new Farm Bill is a proposed increase in so-called "reference pricing," which critics have said only benefits large farming operations and would come at the expense of more widely used social and climate-smart programs.

Walton said she thinks political divisiveness and competing priorities have held up the new Farm Bill.

The previous Farm Bill was extended to this September, but lawmakers have said they aim to have a bill ready by Memorial Day. Along with climate-smart investments, the Farm Bill also funds social safety-net programs.

Geoff Horsfield, a policy director at the Environmental Working Group, said people don't always know how helpful nutrition programs are to families.

"There's a misconception that things like SNAP only benefit urban communities," he said, "and we just know that that's not true - that folks in all counties rely on nutrition assistance programs, some of these social programs, to be able to make ends meet."

SNAP and other nutrition programs received 75% of funding in the 2018 Farm Bill. More than 876,000 Virginians use SNAP and EBT benefits, since food insecurity has been a longstanding issue in the state.

Today, groups working with lower-income families in Connecticut are raising awareness about the state's "benefits cliff" with a day of action.

The benefits cliff is when a person might get a raise, have a kid with a part-time job, or some other income increase which then makes them ineligible for certain benefits. The changes can have severe impacts on communities and disproportionately affect families with children.

Stephen Monroe Tomczak, professor of social work at Southern Connecticut State University, said it is part of a larger workforce problem.

"People, particularly people of low income, are in a sense disincentivized to participate in the labor force and denied adequate jobs and income when they try to do that," Tomczak explained.

Several General Assembly budget bills could have dealt with the issue but most failed, which inspired today's action, a mock funeral procession to the governor's office to eulogize the bills, including the refundable Child Tax Credit, a housing voucher funding boost bill, and a bill eliminating the asset limit on the HUSKY C medical insurance program.

Social service advocates know the bills will resurface in next year's budget process.

Rose Ferraro, program lead of health justice policy advocacy for the Universal Health Care Foundation of Connecticut, said people are taking alternate steps like going to food banks or avoiding medical care to cover lost benefits.

"Folks will lose their rental assistance and then, they will sort of have to make some tough decisions," Ferraro noted. "'Do I put food on my table or do I make sure to pay rent?' And, so it becomes a sort of untenable position."

Ferraro added interwoven state and federal funding makes it hard to reach the core of the issues leading to benefits cliffs. One eulogized bill would have established a benefits cliff pilot program. For two years, it would have provided subsistence for people who've reached the benefits cliff.

New York towns are reaping many benefits since the Inflation Reduction Act was passed.

Along with funds for larger clean energy projects, the state was awarded $158 million for the IRA's Home Energy Rebates program.

Smaller towns and villages use these grants to implement their climate action plans.

Brighton Town Councilmember Robin Wilt said an IRA grant they applied for will help upgrade the town's HVAC system.

"We will be implementing geothermal and then use a solar array to make the system close to net zero, not quite," said Wilt. "I think we'll get 55% of our energy back with the solar panels."

The bureaucratic process to access the funding was challenging, but some groups are working with the Department of Energy to improve it.

Wilt said feedback on the clean energy projects has been positive. Future projects using IRA funding include increasing walkability and sustainable redevelopment.

Critics have said the IRA includes multiple provisions to increase fossil fuel production.

Towns nationwide are using IRA grants to bolster clean energy projects.

Joel Hicks is a council member for the Borough of Carlisle, Pennsylvania.

They've just applied for a grant to work on energy efficiency and solar projects with Harrisburg. He said this will have positive impacts beyond establishing clean energy.

"We were really excited at this potential," said Hicks, "because we saw that the cost savings we would have for putting in substantial solar projects on our public property would actually fund many of our other public municipal goals."

These include purchasing an electric vehicle fleet and having more efficient solid waste programs.

One thing Hicks said he wants to see in future is state and local governments helping small towns and municipalities with putting together their IRA grant proposals.