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Michigan lawmakers target predatory loan companies; NY jury hears tape of Trump and Cohen Discussing Hush-Money Deal; flood-impacted VT households rebuild for climate resilience; film documents environmental battle with Colorado oil, gas industry.

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President Biden defends dissent but says "order must prevail" on campus, former President Trump won't commit to accepting the 2024 election results and Nebraska lawmakers circumvent a ballot measure repealing private school vouchers.

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Bidding begins soon for Wyoming's elk antlers, Southeastern states gained population in the past year, small rural energy projects are losing out to bigger proposals, and a rural arts cooperative is filling the gap for schools in Pennsylvania and West Virginia.

Arizona's Long-Term Drought the New Norm, say Climate Scientists

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Friday, August 12, 2011   

PHOENIX - Southeast Arizona is in a severe drought, and wells are drying up across the state's northern counties. Get used to it, say scientists who point to climate models and historical patterns as confirmation that subtropical areas across the southwestern United States are permanently drying out.

While he's not expecting the entire Southwest to become a vast desert, Richard Seager, a climate scientist with the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory at Columbia University, says conditions that used to be considered extreme are fast becoming the norm.

"There were some historical droughts, like in the '30s and '50s, that went on for years and years on end. That level of aridity will become the new climatological state by the middle of the century."

Climate-change skeptics attribute today's conditions to natural variables rather than permanent atmospheric changes caused by humans. Seager argues that both are true: Natural patterns modified by long-term warming - leading to less-wet wet spells, and more severe dry periods. La Niña conditions in the Pacific, as well as unusually warm Atlantic temperatures, share the blame for the current drought, he says.

"For this individual event, yes, climate variability is very important. But, as this progressive aridification occurs due to human-induced climate change, events like this are going to become more likely."

Short of discovering ways to reduce carbon dioxide already in the atmosphere, Seager says not much can be done to slow the drying trend in coming decades. The good news, he thinks, is that lower water supplies are predictable. The question is how we choose to act on that knowledge...

"What places like Arizona and New Mexico should be doing is thinking how to assign water resources to human users, industries, agriculture. We should start planning for that now."

Already this year, drought has led to farmers abandoning crops, ranchers thinning herds, record-setting electricity usage, and a record-breaking wildfire season, with more than 1 million acres of Arizona forest and grasslands consumed.


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