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How Will Votes Be Counted? It’s Complicated

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Wednesday, October 7, 2020   

HARTFORD, Conn. -- The results in the presidential election will be significantly delayed, and experts say there are multiple scenarios in which the election could end up in the courts or in the U.S. House of Representatives.

As a result of the pandemic, tens of millions of Americans have chosen to vote by mail, which will slow the state-by-state count.

So Professor Capri Cafaro, executive in residence and adjunct lecturer in the Department of Public Administration and Policy at American University, believes immediate results are unlikely.

"I think people can expect not just an election night but an election week," Cafaro predicts, "and if things get close, I guess that's where the real issues begin."

Allegations of fraud and protracted recounts could wind up at the U.S. Supreme Court, which has only eight justices following the death of Ruth Bader Ginsburg. Republicans are vowing to confirm President Donald Trump's nominee, Amy Coney Barrett, as soon as possible.

If there is a tie in the Electoral College, the law sends the decision to the U.S. House of Representatives.

Cafaro said this could favor Trump, even though Democrats control the House. That's because each state delegation only gets one vote, and more states are currently controlled by Republicans than Democrats.

As Cafaro explained it, "The thing is, I believe this would be after the next Congress is sworn in, so Speaker [Nancy] Pelosi is putting a lot of pressure trying to pick up seats for that purpose as well, all across the country."

The Electoral College votes on Dec. 14.

A recent article in The Atlantic alleges the Trump campaign has discussed with Pennsylvania Republican Party leaders the possibility of declaring the election a fraud, bypassing the results and encouraging state legislatures in Republican-controlled states to appoint their own slates of electors.

The U.S. Constitution allows states wide latitude to circumvent the usual process. But according to Cafaro, this is highly unlikely -- because the backlash would be huge.

"Somehow there would have to be some sort of a mutiny to say, 'We refuse to allow the Democratic electors for Joe Biden to come into the chamber and sign the book.' I mean, I guess -- but that's really far-fetched," she added.

Trump also has warned that, in his view, the huge number of mail-in ballots raises the risk of fraud. However, past all-mail elections have shown very few cases of people committing felony mail fraud by altering or destroying ballots.


Support for this reporting was provided by The Carnegie Corporation of New York.


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