LANSING, Mich. - Michigan's shift from blue to red in the 2016 presidential election could be an outlier, according to new research.

The 'States of Change' report examines the ways generational changes could shape the next five presidential elections, from an aging eligible voter population to a more diverse and better educated electorate.

Report co-author William Frey - senior fellow at the Brookings Institution's Metropolitan Policy Program - said the findings suggest 11 swing states that voted Republican in 2016 could shift to Democratic by 2036, with Michigan "going blue" as early as the 2020 election.

"If things stay the same as they are now, it would be difficult for the Republicans to take over," said Frey. "But I think both parties are interested in getting as many voters as they can and will pay attention to this underlying demographic structure. Demography doesn't determine destiny, but it certainly shapes it in a big way."

Frey noted a growing movement toward Republicans among white, non-college voters could potentially counter demographic changes.

Between now and 2036, Millennial and "Gen Z" voters are expected to increase from 36% of Michigan's electorate to 59%, while "Boomer" voters and older will drop from 40% to 20%.

Conservative pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson - partner and co-founder of Echelon Insights - called the findings an alarm bell for Republicans, whom she said she believes need to listen more closely to younger voters and find new ways to talk about free markets and limited government.

"Talk a little bit more about how the things conservatives believe, not just in numbers and nuts and bolts, but in terms of improving people's lives and opening doors of opportunity," said Anderson. "That's the message for a Republican that wants the way forward. Why the things they believe create fairer outcomes. We can't just talk about tradition and ideology."

Tara McGowan - founder and CEO of ACRONYM, a network of Democratic advocacy groups - contended the left shouldn't take the support of key demographics for granted.

She said younger generations want candidates who understand the problems of today, and have the courage of their convictions to get to work.

"We have been through so many years now of gridlock and the inability to actually meet the challenges of this moment," said McGowan. "And I really do think that the majority of voters, especially younger, want to see things get done, and they're going to have a very high bar for what kinds of solutions are presented."

The report notes the findings are simulations about how the electorate might evolve, and not predictions about the outcomes of elections.


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By Kyla Russell for WISH-TV.
Broadcast version by Joe Ulery for Indiana News Service reporting for the WISH-TV-Free Press Indiana-Public News Service Collaboration

Indiana Lt. Gov. Micah Beckwith said he supports efforts to redistrict Indiana's U.S. House seats, and he's seen what could be redrawn maps floating around, but has not seen any official maps.

He shared his thoughts on Friday in a one-on-one interview with I-Team 8.

"People want to scream about gerrymandering. Listen, every state does it. Democrats do it. Republicans do it. I think what Republicans have kind of fallen into the trap of doing for many years in the establishment way of thinking is if we just play nice, they'll play nice, if and when they're in power. We found out that that doesn't happen. So, listen, we've got the ball. We need to run the ball down the field, and we should do everything we can to make big wins for Republican principles, constitutional concepts and I believe ... the Republican Party embodies those principles better than the other party does. So, I'm fully in support of President Trump and his offensive-minded strategy here."

Beckwith told I-Team 8 he does not know exactly what happened on Thursday in a closed-door meeting at the Statehouse with Vice President JD Vance, Gov. Mike Braun and other top state lawmakers.

However, Beckwith said, he is aware of the taxpayer cost to calling a special session.

He says it's worth it.

"I think in the long run, if we can get the outcome that we're looking for, I think it will be certainly we're going to have to spend money. Yes, they are expensive. Nobody takes that lightly. That is certainly a conversation that needs to be had, and we need to look at that. But, I do think if we can take the 1st and 7th districts back, and really make Indiana a powerhouse red state, and then also give Washington a boost with a little bit more in the majority there. I think, economically, it will pay off in the long run, and I think we'll see our investment have big returns."/p<>


Kyla Russell wrote this article for WISH-TV.


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A public funding mechanism for Seattle elections is up for renewal in next week's election.

The Democracy Voucher program was passed 10 years ago. It offers voters four $25 vouchers to use each election cycle for candidates who accept certain fundraising and spending limits. Supporters said it is a model for more inclusive democracy, touting higher turnout, increased participation from more small donors and a more diverse candidate field.

Spencer Olson, spokesperson for the group People Powered Elections Seattle, which supports Proposition 1, said the program helps level the playing field.

"It's really important that people's voices are heard and that candidates can run being supported by their constituents," Olson contended. "Versus just listening to those wealthiest donors, those special interests that have historically been the loudest voices at the table and really dominated what priorities rise to the top."

The voucher is supported by a property tax. Olson and other supporters hope to bring the model statewide. Critics said the program is not big enough to make a difference in elections and has not curbed outside spending. Ballots are due by 8 p.m. Tuesday.

Olson pointed out the vouchers have succeeded in encouraging more diverse participation in local elections.

"The intention of the program was to bring a public financing program to Seattle elections to help empower more candidates -- more diverse candidates, women, renters, people of color -- to have equal access to be able to run, and run competitive elections without having to rely on wealthy donors, special interests," Olson emphasized.

Olson noted because the money comes from a dedicated tax levy, unused vouchers roll over to the next election.

"The goal isn't to create an unlimited pot of money but to be able to provide resources for candidates to run with the community's support," Olson stressed. "But it's not a blank check at the same time."


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Texas lawmakers will return to Austin on July 21 for a special legislative session called by Gov. Greg Abbott.

The 18 items on the agenda include redrawing congressional maps. Redistricting usually occurs every 10 years, following the census, but Abbott added the item to the agenda after the Department of Justice drew attention to four Democratic seats.

Christina Sanders, founder of the nonprofit PoliChic Engagement Fund, said Texas maps are already caught up in litigation.

"Some of the court cases that are still even pending from the maps that have not been drawn fairly and the potential impact of new maps in the middle of a census cycle," Sanders explained.

The Biden administration sued Texas, alleging the state's legislative and congressional district maps discriminate against Latino and Black voters. The Justice Department, under President Donald Trump, withdrew from the lawsuit earlier this year.

The seats targeted by the Justice Department are held by Rep. Al Green, D-Texas, Rep. Sylvia Garcia, D-Texas, and Rep. Marc Veasey, D-Texas. They are also focused on the vacant seat previously held by late Congressman Sylvester Turner. Following the 2023 legislative session, Abbott called four special sessions to pass a school voucher bill, which failed.

Sanders feels Abbott is using special sessions to push personal agendas.

"A special session would be for something like the flood that just occurred," Sanders argued. "It would be something that there is an emergency -- something immediate needs to happen at this moment -- because this policy for the state cannot wait."

Flood warning systems and communication are also on the agenda, along with hemp and THC legislation and changes to the State of Texas Assessments of Academic Readiness test.