By Tim Marema and Sarah Melotte for The Daily Yonder.
Broadcast version by Suzanne Potter for Nevada News Service for the Public News Service/Daily Yonder Collaboration

With two weeks to go before the midterm elections, rural voters are worried about the present, pessimistic about the future, and prepared to vote the way they have in the past, according to the Daily Yonder Rural Poll.

The poll, commissioned by the Daily Yonder's publishing organization, the Center for Rural Strategies, found that rural voters in battleground states hold very dim views about the economy.

. Three quarters (73%) think the U.S. economy is not working for them.
. Half (51%) said they don't expect their finances to improve in the next year.
. Three quarters (77%) said they think things will be worse, not better, for the next generation of Americans.

Poll director Celinda Lake of Lake Research Partners said rural voters are even more concerned about the economy than the rest of the nation, which is also focusing on economic issues in the midterm election.

"I was stunned by these numbers [about the economy]," she said. "They are really different than what we've seen in the past, and really different from what we're seeing in the rest of the country, as pessimistic as the rest of the country is."

Fifty-nine percent of respondents said they intend to vote for Republicans in congressional races. About a third (32%) said they intend to vote for Democratic candidates. That's roughly the margin by which Donald Trump won the rural battleground in 2020.

People who strongly preferred Republicans outnumbered people who strongly preferred Democratic candidates by more than 2 to 1 (51% to 23%).

"Rural America's in a pretty Republican mood," Lake said. "There's no doubt about it."

Rural voters represent roughly 15-30% of the electorate, depending on which definition of rural is used.

Nearly half (45%) of rural voters selected the rising cost of living as one of their top concerns from a list of 12 issues. The second-most frequently selected issue was dysfunction in government (28%). Other issues in the top five were Social Security (19%), abortion and women's rights (17%), and jobs and the economy (15%). Crime and health care tied for fifth at 13%.

Republicans and Democrats differed sharply in their two most important issues. Republicans chose the cost of living and government dysfunction. Democrats selected abortion and women's rights and climate change.

Inflation-related issues dominated an open-ended question about which concerns rural voters had about the economy in small towns and rural areas. The top answers were rising gas prices (19%), higher food costs (14%), rising energy costs (13%), lack of good-paying jobs (13%), rising housing costs (10%), and saving enough for retirement (10%).

Lake said she thinks rural voters' economic concerns, coupled with dim views of wealthy corporations and corporate CEOs, mean that rural America is ripe for a populist message.

"A solid majority of rural America is populist economically," said Lake, who is a Democrat. "We need to start talking about corporate greed. We need to start talking about how to make this economy work better for working families, including rural working families, and how price gauging is unacceptable."

Other findings in the Daily Yonder Poll included the following:

. Rural voters view Trump more favorably than urban voters, Lake said. Over half of respondents view Trump favorably or somewhat favorably. "They are still more supportive of Trump than a lot of other places," she said.
. Men are more likely to worry about gas prices than women (22% versus 17%), and women are more likely than men to worry about food costs (19% for women versus 8% for men).
. Rural voters are far more likely to think local elected officials understand the problems families are facing than either state elected officials or Congress. Nearly half of respondents said local elected officials understand their issues, while only 5% said Congress understands their problems.
. Republican rural voters named freedom and faith as their top two values. Democratic rural voters selected equality and kindness/compassion. Republicans and Democrats both selected accountability and family as either their third or fourth most important value.

Methodology

The poll surveyed 400 likely rural voters in 11 battleground states. Battleground states were selected based on the competitiveness of races for U.S. Senate or House or governors' seats. States sampled were Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Missouri, New Hampshire, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Rural was defined at the census-tract level using a model devised by TargetSmart. That model is based on population density, percent of Census-defined rural residents, and other factors. Under this system, rural voters represent about 30% of the nation's electorate. The Daily Yonder's more customary rural definition uses the Office of Management and Budget Metropolitan Statistical Area system, which operates at the county level. Under this system, the rural electorate is roughly 15%.

The survey was was conducted by telephone using professional interviewers, as well as text-to-online. Interviews were conducted October 13-17, 2022.

The margin of error is plus or minus 4.9 percentage points, and larger for subgroups of the survey sample.

Tim Marema wrote this article for The Daily Yonder.


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A new poll finds a near 20-year low in the number of voters who say they have a high interest in the 2024 election, with a majority saying they hold negative views of both President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump. A group of Arizona elections officials and experts recently gathered to discuss the growing discontent with the state's current electoral landscape.

Stephen Richer, Maricopa County Recorder, said that if politicians are what he calls "single-minded seekers of re-election," he contends the state should change the political incentive structure.

"And if those incentives will change, then maybe we will be talking about more things in the Arizona Voter's Agenda and less things that are currently right now incentivized by what I still believe to be a minority, but a very passionate, very loud, and a minority that is definitely committed to acting on those issues," he said.

Richer added it is important to remember that despite Independent and unaffiliated voters being able to participate in the July 30th statewide primary, they were excluded from the state's March Presidential Preference Election, and that has caught the eye of some in the state. The bipartisan group Make Elections Fair Arizona is pushing for open primaries, but proponents of closed primaries believe they're crucial to maintaining the integrity of party ideals.

Amanda Burke, executive vice president with the non-partisan, nonprofit organization Center for the Future of Arizona, said more than half of unaffiliated voters do not feel they have leaders or candidates running who speak to the issues and causes they care about. She contends that then translates to who decides to show up at the ballot box and vote, and encourages Arizonans to imagine a different primary system if they want different outcomes.

"Otherwise we are going to continue to have some more outcomes in terms of people who are incentivized to speak to a small percentage of their base on either side who are really not representative of the larger views," she explained.

The Grand Canyon State allows voter-initiated amendments to the state constitution, but the Arizona Require Partisan Primary Elections Amendment would add the state's current primary practice to the state constitution, prohibiting future changes without another constitutional amendment. Make Elections Fair Arizona is still collecting signatures to get its measure on the November ballot.


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Wisconsin women have made progress in closing gaps when it comes to being elected to public office.

But some voices worry the movement might slow down as candidates see increasing levels of threats and harassment.

The Brennan Center for Justice recently issued findings that detail the threatening behavior those in the political arena are experiencing now.

Women were three to four times as likely as men to experience abuse targeting their gender.

Erin Vilardi, CEO and founder of the advocacy and assistance group Vote Run Lead, said this creates more unfairness in areas such as resource planning for a campaign.

"We see women candidates and incumbents right now having to pay for security," said Vilardi, "having to put in their budgets, in their campaign funds, in their line-items for their campaigns a security detail."

And Vilardi said because of the worsening climate, the threats are extending to almost all other candidates, including conservative white men.

She and other researchers called on party leaders to strongly condemn political violence. They also recommend that each state implement stronger protection for officeholders.

Vilardi said it's not just women candidates and incumbents having to deal with this behavior. Women working as top aides and political journalists are subject to more hateful rhetoric these days.

"This is something that permeates women in politics," said Vilardi, "not just for the folks that are stepping up to lead but for the ecosystem of women around them."

And if more women decide not to run or seek re-election as a result, Vilardi said this means there will be fewer opportunities for gender equality in leadership positions in state legislatures and Congress.

She urged constituents to send messages of support to women officeholders as they weigh these challenges and their political futures.

Support for this reporting was provided by the Carnegie Corporation of New York.



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Kentuckians have less than a week to register to vote in next month's primary election.

If folks miss the April 22 deadline, residents can still register to vote in the presidential election this fall.

Laura Weinstein, chair of the League of Women Voters of Kentucky, is encouraging people to take action now. Voters will need to bring photo identification to the polls. A list of acceptable forms of identification is on the Secretary of State's website.

Weinstein added the website vote411.org includes personalized information about registration and what's on the ballot.

"We'll be posting what are called voter guides," Weinstein explained. "The candidates will be filling out questionnaires so voters can have a better sense of the candidates' positions before going to the polls."

Polls will be open from 6 a.m. to 6 p.m. on Election Day, May 21 and early voting runs from May 16-18. This year, Kentuckians will vote for state legislative and local offices, nominate candidates for Congress, and nominate their pick for the next U.S. president.

Weinstein noted there is still time to sign up to be a poll worker, through the website powerthepolls.org.

"And you can get compensated," Weinstein pointed out. "You get $260 for Election Day and it's a great way to learn, again, more about the process. So, that's another excellent way to participate in a primary election as a voter this year."

Research shows primaries typically have lower voter turnout than general elections. Weinstein stressed in a climate of widespread polarization and mistrust in elections, it is more important than ever people participate in the electoral process.

"We also know that voting is habit-forming," Weinstein observed. "Even though there may not be a competitive race in your district, the more you go vote, the more likely it is you'll vote in the future."

More than more than two million Kentuckians showed up at the polls in the last presidential election in 2020, according to the Kentucky State Board of Elections.

Support for this reporting was provided by The Carnegie Corporation of New York.


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