By Tim Marema and Sarah Melotte for The Daily Yonder.
Broadcast version by Mike Moen for Wisconsin News Service for the Public News Service/Daily Yonder Collaboration
With two weeks to go before the midterm elections, rural voters are worried about the present, pessimistic about the future, and prepared to vote the way they have in the past, according to the Daily Yonder Rural Poll.
The poll, commissioned by the Daily Yonder's publishing organization, the Center for Rural Strategies, found that rural voters in battleground states hold very dim views about the economy.
Three quarters (73%) think the U.S. economy is not working for them.
Half (51%) said they don't expect their finances to improve in the next year.
Three quarters (77%) said they think things will be worse, not better, for the next generation of Americans.
Poll director Celinda Lake of Lake Research Partners said rural voters are even more concerned about the economy than the rest of the nation, which is also focusing on economic issues in the midterm election.
"I was stunned by these numbers [about the economy]," she said. "They are really different than what we've seen in the past, and really different from what we're seeing in the rest of the country, as pessimistic as the rest of the country is."
Fifty-nine percent of respondents said they intend to vote for Republicans in congressional races. About a third (32%) said they intend to vote for Democratic candidates. That's roughly the margin by which Donald Trump won the rural battleground in 2020.
People who strongly preferred Republicans outnumbered people who strongly preferred Democratic candidates by more than 2 to 1 (51% to 23%).
"Rural America's in a pretty Republican mood," Lake said. "There's no doubt about it."
Rural voters represent roughly 15-30% of the electorate, depending on which definition of rural is used.
Nearly half (45%) of rural voters selected the rising cost of living as one of their top concerns from a list of 12 issues. The second-most frequently selected issue was dysfunction in government (28%). Other issues in the top five were Social Security (19%), abortion and women's rights (17%), and jobs and the economy (15%). Crime and health care tied for fifth at 13%.
Republicans and Democrats differed sharply in their two most important issues. Republicans chose the cost of living and government dysfunction. Democrats selected abortion and women's rights and climate change.
Inflation-related issues dominated an open-ended question about which concerns rural voters had about the economy in small towns and rural areas. The top answers were rising gas prices (19%), higher food costs (14%), rising energy costs (13%), lack of good-paying jobs (13%), rising housing costs (10%), and saving enough for retirement (10%).
Lake said she thinks rural voters' economic concerns, coupled with dim views of wealthy corporations and corporate CEOs, mean that rural America is ripe for a populist message.
"A solid majority of rural America is populist economically," said Lake, who is a Democrat. "We need to start talking about corporate greed. We need to start talking about how to make this economy work better for working families, including rural working families, and how price gauging is unacceptable."
Other findings in the Daily Yonder Poll included the following:
Rural voters view Trump more favorably than urban voters, Lake said. Over half of respondents view Trump favorably or somewhat favorably. "They are still more supportive of Trump than a lot of other places," she said.
Men are more likely to worry about gas prices than women (22% versus 17%), and women are more likely than men to worry about food costs (19% for women versus 8% for men).
Rural voters are far more likely to think local elected officials understand the problems families are facing than either state elected officials or Congress. Nearly half of respondents said local elected officials understand their issues, while only 5% said Congress understands their problems.
Republican rural voters named freedom and faith as their top two values. Democratic rural voters selected equality and kindness/compassion. Republicans and Democrats both selected accountability and family as either their third or fourth most important value.
Methodology
The poll surveyed 400 likely rural voters in 11 battleground states. Battleground states were selected based on the competitiveness of races for U.S. Senate or House or governors' seats. States sampled were Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Missouri, New Hampshire, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Rural was defined at the census-tract level using a model devised by TargetSmart. That model is based on population density, percent of Census-defined rural residents, and other factors. Under this system, rural voters represent about 30% of the nation's electorate. The Daily Yonder's more customary rural definition uses the Office of Management and Budget Metropolitan Statistical Area system, which operates at the county level. Under this system, the rural electorate is roughly 15%.
The survey was was conducted by telephone using professional interviewers, as well as text-to-online. Interviews were conducted October 13-17, 2022.
The margin of error is plus or minus 4.9 percentage points, and larger for subgroups of the survey sample.
Tim Marema and Sarah Melotte wrote this article for The Daily Yonder.
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By Kyla Russell for WISH-TV.
Broadcast version by Joe Ulery for Indiana News Service reporting for the WISH-TV-Free Press Indiana-Public News Service Collaboration
Indiana Lt. Gov. Micah Beckwith said he supports efforts to redistrict Indiana's U.S. House seats, and he's seen what could be redrawn maps floating around, but has not seen any official maps.
He shared his thoughts on Friday in a one-on-one interview with I-Team 8.
"People want to scream about gerrymandering. Listen, every state does it. Democrats do it. Republicans do it. I think what Republicans have kind of fallen into the trap of doing for many years in the establishment way of thinking is if we just play nice, they'll play nice, if and when they're in power. We found out that that doesn't happen. So, listen, we've got the ball. We need to run the ball down the field, and we should do everything we can to make big wins for Republican principles, constitutional concepts and I believe ... the Republican Party embodies those principles better than the other party does. So, I'm fully in support of President Trump and his offensive-minded strategy here."
Beckwith told I-Team 8 he does not know exactly what happened on Thursday in a closed-door meeting at the Statehouse with Vice President JD Vance, Gov. Mike Braun and other top state lawmakers.
However, Beckwith said, he is aware of the taxpayer cost to calling a special session.
He says it's worth it.
"I think in the long run, if we can get the outcome that we're looking for, I think it will be certainly we're going to have to spend money. Yes, they are expensive. Nobody takes that lightly. That is certainly a conversation that needs to be had, and we need to look at that. But, I do think if we can take the 1st and 7th districts back, and really make Indiana a powerhouse red state, and then also give Washington a boost with a little bit more in the majority there. I think, economically, it will pay off in the long run, and I think we'll see our investment have big returns."/p<>
Kyla Russell wrote this article for WISH-TV.
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A public funding mechanism for Seattle elections is up for renewal in next week's election.
The Democracy Voucher program was passed 10 years ago. It offers voters four $25 vouchers to use each election cycle for candidates who accept certain fundraising and spending limits. Supporters said it is a model for more inclusive democracy, touting higher turnout, increased participation from more small donors and a more diverse candidate field.
Spencer Olson, spokesperson for the group People Powered Elections Seattle, which supports Proposition 1, said the program helps level the playing field.
"It's really important that people's voices are heard and that candidates can run being supported by their constituents," Olson contended. "Versus just listening to those wealthiest donors, those special interests that have historically been the loudest voices at the table and really dominated what priorities rise to the top."
The voucher is supported by a property tax. Olson and other supporters hope to bring the model statewide. Critics said the program is not big enough to make a difference in elections and has not curbed outside spending. Ballots are due by 8 p.m. Tuesday.
Olson pointed out the vouchers have succeeded in encouraging more diverse participation in local elections.
"The intention of the program was to bring a public financing program to Seattle elections to help empower more candidates -- more diverse candidates, women, renters, people of color -- to have equal access to be able to run, and run competitive elections without having to rely on wealthy donors, special interests," Olson emphasized.
Olson noted because the money comes from a dedicated tax levy, unused vouchers roll over to the next election.
"The goal isn't to create an unlimited pot of money but to be able to provide resources for candidates to run with the community's support," Olson stressed. "But it's not a blank check at the same time."
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Texas lawmakers will return to Austin on July 21 for a special legislative session called by Gov. Greg Abbott.
The 18 items on the agenda include redrawing congressional maps. Redistricting usually occurs every 10 years, following the census, but Abbott added the item to the agenda after the Department of Justice drew attention to four Democratic seats.
Christina Sanders, founder of the nonprofit PoliChic Engagement Fund, said Texas maps are already caught up in litigation.
"Some of the court cases that are still even pending from the maps that have not been drawn fairly and the potential impact of new maps in the middle of a census cycle," Sanders explained.
The Biden administration sued Texas, alleging the state's legislative and congressional district maps discriminate against Latino and Black voters. The Justice Department, under President Donald Trump, withdrew from the lawsuit earlier this year.
The seats targeted by the Justice Department are held by Rep. Al Green, D-Texas, Rep. Sylvia Garcia, D-Texas, and Rep. Marc Veasey, D-Texas. They are also focused on the vacant seat previously held by late Congressman Sylvester Turner. Following the 2023 legislative session, Abbott called four special sessions to pass a school voucher bill, which failed.
Sanders feels Abbott is using special sessions to push personal agendas.
"A special session would be for something like the flood that just occurred," Sanders argued. "It would be something that there is an emergency -- something immediate needs to happen at this moment -- because this policy for the state cannot wait."
Flood warning systems and communication are also on the agenda, along with hemp and THC legislation and changes to the State of Texas Assessments of Academic Readiness test.
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