Recent polling from The New York Times and Siena College found President Biden trailing former President Donald Trump in five of the six most crucial battleground states, one of which is Arizona.

In the Grand Canyon state Trump leads Biden by five-percentage points.

Elaine Kamarck, director of the Center for Effective Public Management at the Brookings Institute, said the question is - if polls are showing Biden slipping, compounded with his unfavorable approval rating, does that mean voters won't vote for him and other Democrats in the upcoming election?

She said it isn't a simple answer.

"Maybe there is just no relationship between the president's popularity and down ballot voting," said Kamarck. "That voters vote on very different things and maybe because we have a 'president-centric' kind of culture, maybe we just get that wrong all the time."

While The New York Times/Siena College poll comprised just over 3,600 registered voters among all six states, Kamarck said other state-based polls - which struck fear in many Democrats - are composed only of about six hundred participants, which she says likely aren't grasping the entirety of voter's preferences and true attitudes.

Kamarck said looking at the special elections in 2021, the midterms in 2022, and the most recent set of elections this year, President Biden's unpopularity does not have much to do with democratic votes.

She contended that Democrats "over performed expectations," in all three years and increased their margins.

She argued that abortion is a huge motivator for democratic voters. Arizona is among one of several states looking at a possible proposed abortion rights measure on next year's ballot, which could boost Democrat's chances.

"Where the right to choose is front and center on the agenda, abortion is an incredibly powerful motivator," said Kamarck. "I think in my lifetime in politics which has been pretty long, it is probably the biggest push I've ever seen, really."

Arizona for Abortion Access is supported by a coalition of reproductive rights advocates who are currently working on getting the close to 400,000 signatures from Arizona voters by July of next year.

Currently, abortions are legal in Arizona up to 15 weeks with no exceptions for rape or incest. The law does have an exception to save the life of a pregnant mother.

Support for this reporting was provided by The Carnegie Corporation of New York.

Groups working for human rights causes in Iowa warn proposed cuts being debated in Congress would trickle down to the people least able to sustain them.

The Trump administration has proposed $880 billion in cuts over the next decade to Medicaid and other services, including the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program.

Progress Iowa Executive Director Mazie Stilwell said those cuts would fall most squarely on average Iowans, many of them kids, who don't have a voice in the process.

"There is so much fear right now, and it's fear from everyday working Iowans who know there's no one fighting for them," said Stilwell. "It's the Iowans who know that when push comes to shove, and when programs are put on the chopping block, they're the ones who are going to suffer."

The Trump administration has said it is working to downsize the federal government and cut expenses.

About 270,000 Iowans receive SNAP or federal food assistance, and more than 700,000 get their health coverage from Medicaid.

Stilwell contended that Iowans aren't the only ones afraid of potential social service cuts, but politicians are too.

She said she suspects that's one reason they aren't showing up at town hall meetings, that have long been the hallmark of grassroots democracy in the state.

"What we've seen is these members of Congress running away from their constituents," said Stilwell. "They are refusing to answer their questions. They are trying to make a mockery of their constituents and their efforts."

Stilwell said in light of the just-passed income tax filing deadline, Iowans want to know their money is being used to represent their interests - and not to fund tax cuts or corporate interests.

Reps. Mariannette Miller-Meeks and Zach Nunn, both Republicans, voted in favor of the measure that would social service programs.

Adrian Fontes, Arizona's Secretary of State, argued there is nothing wrong with American elections but some leaders in Washington, D.C., disagree.

The U.S. Senate will consider the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility Act this week. It would require people to show documents in person, like a passport or birth certificate, to register to vote. Republican proponents said it is needed to keep noncitizens from voting.

Fontes countered it is an exceedingly rare occurrence and he has yet to see proof of widespread voter fraud or abuse.

"This 'documented proof of citizenship' issue, where is the data that shows that we have a significant and severe problem with nonqualified voters, voting? Where is the data?" Fontes asked. "This is another example of the tail wagging the dog."

The measure faces a long shot in the Senate. At the same time, one of President Donald Trump's latest executive orders would overhaul major facets of the nation's election system, in part by restricting people's ability to register by mail or online. Voting rights advocates said the president does not have the legal authority to do it.

Liz Avore, senior policy adviser for the nonpartisan Voting Rights Lab, said many states have taken Trump's executive order as a call to action, as 24 states so far this year have considered legislation to impose or expand proof of citizenship requirements. Since 2013, Arizona voters have had to provide documents proving their citizenship to vote in state and local elections. Avore suggested it was not the administration's intent to change federal law.

"The goal of the executive order was and is to send clear marching orders to the states, and also to Congress, to tell them exactly what President Trump wants them to be doing," Avore contended. "The states are listening."

Democratic attorneys general in 19 states, including Arizona, have a filed a lawsuit, arguing the Trump executive order "sows confusion and sets the stage for chaos" in state election systems.


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Despite voter approval in November, Missouri lawmakers are moving to undo part of Proposition A, specifically, the clause requiring employers to provide paid sick leave.

The Missouri House passed the repeal legislation last month by a 96-51 vote. The provision was approved by nearly 60% of voters, who also supported raising the state's minimum wage to $15 an hour by 2026.

Prop A proponents said repealing any part of the measure so soon after its approval undermines the will of the voters.

John Davis, partner at the bipartisan polling firm Red America, Blue America Research, said its latest survey showed 75% of respondents oppose efforts to repeal the legislation.

"Legislators who are thinking about what voters had approved just this past November should be concerned that there's such a strong response in opposition to that particular type of proposal," Davis noted.

Supporters of the repeal contended the sick-leave mandate is too rigid and burdensome, warning it could lead to reduced hiring or even business closures. The bill is now in the Senate, which has two weeks to act before the mandate takes effect May 1.

Business groups have filed lawsuits claiming Proposition A violates Missouri's single-subject rule by linking minimum wage hikes with paid sick leave. Supporters of the repeal also argued the Legislature can amend the law without a public vote since it changed state law, not the constitution.

Davis highlighted the importance of public opinion surveys.

"Some of the decisions made at statehouses are of extraordinary consequence," Davis pointed out. "What we have tried to do is just establish sort of baselines, to take a look over time how folks are feeling about a variety of topics, because state laws really do impact people very, very directly."

If the Missouri Senate approves the bill, it will move to Gov. Mike Kehoe's desk, where he can sign it into law, veto it, or allow it to become law without his signature.


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