By Kathiann Kowalski for Inside Climate News.
Broadcast version by Farah Siddiqi for Ohio News Connection reporting for the Solutions Journalism Network-Public News Service Collaboration

Lake Erie's harmful algal blooms have started sooner and had longer peak periods over the past decade compared to earlier years, newly released data shows. Warming temperatures linked to climate change are a cause, according to researchers for NOAA's National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science, with interactions among species likely playing a role as well.

The NOAA scientists discussed the shift and forecast a moderate to above-moderate algal bloom for the lake's western basin this summer during a briefing last month at Ohio State University and Ohio Sea Grant's Stone Laboratory, off the coast of Put-in-Bay on Lake Erie.

Algal blooms occur when cyanobacteria, or blue-green algae, grow out of control due to a combination of excess nutrients, weather patterns and other ecological factors. The blooms can be a serious public health problem because some types of cyanobacteria produce toxins. Microcystin, for example, can lead to skin rashes, gut problems and liver and kidney issues. Relatively high levels of it in August 2014 prompted a two-day shutdown of Toledo's public water supply, which comes from Lake Erie.

"We were certainly caught off guard, and the impact was hundreds of thousands of people were without drinking water," said Sean Corson, director of the National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science. The total economic impact of the 2014 water crisis was around $65 million, he said.

Even when toxic strains aren't the problem, algal blooms can still affect Ohio's lake-focused businesses and other activities. Aside from the ugliness of neon green scum, people can't distinguish between toxic and non-toxic strains by eye. Such uncertainty discourages lake-based activities, such as beach visits and fishing. Blooms also add to costs for water treatment plants.

Out-of-control cyanobacteria don't provide good eating for the rest of the lake's food web, either. And they contribute to so-called dead zones, areas with very low levels of dissolved oxygen that can't support aquatic life.

For more than a decade, NOAA has worked with partners in the state, including the Ohio Sea Grant Program, the National Center for Water Quality Research at Heidelberg University, the Ohio State University and the University of Toledo, to forecast the severity of the blooms in Lake Erie's western basin. It's the shallowest part of the lake, with abundant fish. Water is likely to warm faster and blooms flourish there more readily than elsewhere in the lake. Water in Lake Erie generally moves from west to east.

Last year's bloom was significantly larger than the smaller-than-average event researchers had predicted. So the forecast team took a closer look at the data.

From 2012 through 2023, Lake Erie's algal blooms have generally started in July, compared to the previous decade when blooms usually kicked in during August, said NOAA oceanographer Rick Stumpf, who plays a leading role in the forecasting program. The lake's algal blooms during the past decade also have had longer peak periods, resembling plateaus instead of short spikes.

"Blooms are starting earlier. They're lasting longer. Their peaks are larger. So, by some measures, they're getting worse," Corson said.

"Temperature is the overall driver," Stumpf said, noting ongoing trends of warmer summers and less ice cover in winters. But it's not a simple matter of warmer water producing the changes. The team's current hypothesis is that the shift to earlier algae blooms with longer peak periods reflects both climate change and ecological interactions.

Diatoms are a type of single-cell algae found in Lake Erie, which play an important part in its food webs. They generally outcompete cyanobacteria for nutrients early in the season, when water is cooler, Stumpf explained. The diatoms provide good eating for tiny lake organisms called zooplankton. Changing conditions in the lake could be increasing the degree to which the zooplankton multiply and feast on the diatoms, perhaps suppressing their populations sooner than in earlier years. By the time that happens, cyanobacteria, which prefer warmer water anyway, may have a clearer path to use extra nutrients in the water and grow out of control.

Research is ongoing to better understand what's been happening, Stumpf said. It could help fine-tune future forecasts. But climate change is definitely a factor in the mix.

"We know that climate is changing. We know that this is happening in states here in the Great Lakes region," Corson said. Changes in Ohio include a trend toward warmer average temperatures and more intense rainfall that usually increases stormwater runoff.

When soil can't absorb that runoff, it carries nutrients from fertilizers into waterways, along with other pollution. Fertilizer runoff from farms is a major source of both phosphorus and nitrogen, although some amounts also come from places like golf courses and suburban subdivisions.

Researchers are seeing shifts in algal bloom patterns elsewhere in the United States. But "changes are really specific to the individual area where you are," Corson said. Many coastal areas are experiencing warming trends and changes in precipitation patterns, along with shifts in land use that increase the amount of impervious surfaces. "Those are all occurring, and the shapes of the blooms are changing as well," he said.

The Outlook This Summer

The severity of Lake Erie's algal blooms varies from year to year. Factors include the levels of nutrient loading from the Maumee River basin, which covers a large part of northwestern Ohio, along with smaller areas in Indiana and Michigan.

The basin accounts for nearly half of the total phosphorus going into Lake Erie's western basin each year, according to Laura Johnson, who heads the National Center for Water Quality Research. She and others are especially interested in the amount of bioavailable phosphorus reaching the lake's western basin each year. Bioavailable means the phosphorus is in a form algae can use.

Estimates for that loading each spring come from flow data and chemical analyses of samples pulled at stream monitoring equipment in Waterville, which accounts for roughly 96 percent of the watershed. More than 60 percent of the area's total bioavailable phosphorus loading from March 1 through June 23 happened in April, Johnson said.

That month was the wettest on record for the region, and more rainfall generally means more fertilizer runoff. However, it was also a mild winter. Relatively dry soils could absorb a fair amount of the runoff, which prevented "crazy flash floods," Johnson said. Some phosphorus remains in the lake from prior years' discharges.

Stumpf and his team fed information from Johnson's group and other data into three models to estimate how severe this year's algal bloom will be on a scale from 1 to 10. "Three models give you a better chance of bracketing the right result," Stumpf explained.

This year's work also reflects a tweak to account for the changing pattern of earlier starts and longer peaks for Lake Erie's algal blooms. "Now we're training those models on data from 2013 to 2023," Stumpf said. The more current data should improve the models' results.

For this year, NOAA predicted a Level 5 bloom, with a range of 4.5 to 6. Fortunately, Corson said, technology continues to improve ongoing monitoring of algal blooms. Water treatment plants' technology has improved as well, he noted.

"The bloom isn't all over the lake all the time," Stumpf stressed. Wind patterns and other factors determine which areas are affected at any particular time. Checking NOAA's updated forecasts can help for planning recreational activities.

"That's going to show you where the bloom is going," said Chris Winslow, director of Ohio Sea Grant and Ohio State University's Stone Laboratory. The Ohio Department of Health's BeachGuard webpage also reports sampling results for cyanobacteria toxins and E. coli bacteria.

Researchers also advise common sense. If the water appears green and scummy, "keep yourself, your kids and your pets out of the water," Stumpf said. Not all algal blooms have high levels of the toxin-producing strains, but it's not worth taking chances.


Kathiann Kowalski wrote this article for Inside Climate News.


get more stories like this via email

By Jennifer Oldham for Sierra.
Broadcast version by Eric Galatas for Colorado News Connection reporting for the Solutions Journalism Network-Public News Service Collaboration

Pumps hissed, a camera oscillated, and wind whistled through oil and gas wells at the Methane Emissions Technology Evaluation Center at Colorado State University. The mechanical symphony could be the soundtrack to a revolution in our ability to detect and measure methane, the invisible, odorless "super pollutant" responsible for a third of global greenhouse gas emissions.

The United States is the world's largest producer of oil and gas and its biggest emitter of methane-much of it leaks from oil and gas operations. A raft of new federal and state laws require energy companies to monitor and fix emission leaks. That's why companies are lining up to test methane-detection devices at the Fort Collins facility.

"Things are moving quickly-people have realized legislators aren't messing around," said Ryan Brouwer, facility manager at the testing center. "We have 12 different companies testing now. I am booked until the fall, and we have a waiting list."

Brouwer showed off high-pressure tanks that feed gas into wells, other tanks, and separators. Their valves, pipe joints, and other fittings leak the methane-the main component of "natural gas"-into the air. Then finely tuned handheld sensors, softball-size devices mounted on hefty tripods, and equipment attached to drones and aircraft go to work. These sensors report their readings of the rate, location, and duration of leaks to center scientists, who then compare them with data on the known releases.

Why all the fuss? Because methane is an enormously powerful greenhouse gas, 80 times as potent as carbon dioxide at trapping heat. As an article from the Rocky Mountain Institute put it, "If CO2 pollution wraps one blanket around the earth, methane pollution is like wrapping the earth in over 80 blankets." Studies show that eliminating these emissions would lead to immediate benefits for the climate and public health.

The concentration of methane in the atmosphere today is two-and-a-half times preindustrial levels, and accelerating. Agriculture is the largest anthropogenic source (all those belching cows, mostly), followed by oil, coal, gas, and bioenergy, which account for 46 percent of emissions. Rotting organic material in landfills is another major contributor.

Of these offenders, the emissions from fossil fuels are perhaps the easiest to deal with, as it's largely a matter of plugging leaks. According to the International Energy Agency, methane emissions from fossil fuels must drop by three-quarters this decade to meet the Paris Agreement climate goals. Hence the race at the Colorado State center to develop and improve methane-detecting sensors on the ground and in the air. As these technologies improve, scientific studies are finding that earlier calculations widely underestimated the actual amount of the gas in the atmosphere.

"We saw so much variability in methane emissions across the regions," said Evan Sherwin, who led research at Stanford University for a paper published in Nature in March. "If we compare our numbers to the Environmental Protection Agency's numbers, ours were three times higher."

Sherwin worked with a team from Stanford, Kairos Aerospace (now Insight M), and other labs to conduct aerial surveys over six hydrocarbon-producing regions, taking a million measurements over Colorado, Texas, New Mexico, and Pennsylvania. They estimated that the operations emitted 6.2 million tons of methane a year-equivalent to all the CO2 emissions from fossil fuel use in Mexico.

"We found [that] as low as .05 percent of oil and gas production facilities are responsible for half or more of emissions," said Sherwin, who is now at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. "We really do now have the tools to find the bulk of the emissions that matter pretty rapidly."

In addition to worsening the climate crisis, methane emissions represent an annual loss of $1 billion to the gas companies. The prospect of recovering that leaking gas is incentivizing energy companies worldwide to fix methane leaks discovered by satellites. Six years ago, energy companies in the Oil and Gas Climate Initiative invested in the satellite company GHGSat; they've used the satellites to help detect and quantify leaks in Iraq, Algeria, Egypt, and Kazakhstan. After the results were confirmed with on-the-ground testing, local operators fixed the leaks, said Bjørn Otto Sverdrup, chair of OGCI's executive committee.

"Three problems we discovered were approximately equal to a million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent," he said. "It's like taking away close to 250,000 cars." Methane detection and measurement, he concluded, "is now at a point where we may be able to start moving the needle at scale." Indeed, data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration shows that the methane increase in the atmosphere in 2023 slowed from the record growth earlier this decade. Even so, the year marked the fifth-highest increase since 2007.

More than a dozen satellites now orbit the planet scanning for methane plumes. Some are privately owned; others are operated by governments and nonprofits. Data from select satellites are available on the International Methane Emissions Observatory's online data portal.

Mark Brownstein is a senior vice president at the Environmental Defense Fund, which developed its own methane-detecting satellite, MethaneSat. "This is data that will provide the most comprehensive amount of emissions and the rate at which they are being emitted," he said. "We see this data as being incredibly important to hold countries and companies accountable to commitments they've made."

Satellites have limitations though. They can't see past cloud cover or over water, and they have time constraints on how much data they can collect from any one location. Consequently, said Dan Zimmerle, the director of Colorado State's methane center, all types of sensors are needed to make progress in fixing leaky oil and gas equipment and spotting flares that fail to fully combust all the gas being vented.

Zimmerle's operation is set to receive $25 million from the Department of Energy and industry partners to modernize equipment, standardize testing solutions, and support field trials of methane-sensing satellites. The team is searching for locations to test how the satellites are performing.

"We will put up a test release," Zimmerle said. "They will task on it, we will get a report from them that says what they saw, and we will compare it to the real thing."


Jennifer Oldham wrote this article for Sierra.


get more stories like this via email

As Coloradans deal with record-breaking heat, wildfires, and prolonged drought - linked to a changing climate - a new report shows how American taxpayers are subsidizing disinformation about climate change.

Co-author Chuck Collins is co-founder of the Climate Accountability Research Project. He said people with ties to the fossil fuel industry are bankrolling groups trying to block action on climate change through tax-deductible donations.

"There are 137 organizations that are actively involved in promoting climate disinformation," said Collins, "challenging the science, sowing doubt, blocking alternatives. Their goal is to run out the clock and keep extracting their profits."

Between 2020 and 2022, people gave these organizations nearly $6 billion in tax-deductible donations - which is entirely legal under the U.S. tax code.

The U.S. Supreme Court has also ruled that financial contributions deserve the same First Amendment protections as speech, at least in political campaigns.

Collins argued that because wealthy donors are essentially pushing the burden of building and maintaining roads, schools, and other essential services, onto other taxpayers - the public deserves to know who they are.

"They're opting out of paying their taxes," said Collins. "So, the rest of us do have a public interest in knowing how that money is being used. And whether it's being used in a way that influences Congress, and influences public policy, and takes us down a road that we may not want to go down."

Many donors are now listed online at ClimateCriminals.org, which also features a countdown to a deadline set in Paris to cut fossil fuel emissions in order to prevent the worst impacts of climate change.

Collins noted many more donors remain anonymous by contributing through groups, including donor-advised funds. He believes increasing transparency is important in removing barriers to serious climate action.

"We should know who is blocking our ability to respond in a timely way to climate change," said Collins. "And we should hold those people accountable."




get more stories like this via email

Washington state has launched a new website that lets people and organizations know about ways they can fund going green.

With resources for clean energy and efficiency projects at an all-time high, the state has created the portal FundHubWA to help navigate funding opportunities.

That includes tax incentives, rebates, and state and federal grants.

Amy Wheeless is the federal policy and program alignment manager with the Washington State Department of Commerce, which is running the site.

She said hub is an apt name for it and walks through how it works.

"You say 'I'm an individual,' or 'I'm a farmer,' or 'I'm a business,' and 'I'm looking for funding opportunities for energy efficiency or for electric vehicles,'" said Wheeless, "and then it will present a variety of federal and state opportunities that are available."

FundHubWA offers resources from federal laws passed in recent years, including the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, CHIPS for America, the Inflation Reduction Act - and from Washington state's Climate Commitment Act.

The website is available for individuals and a wide range of organizations, including public agencies, tribal governments and nonprofits.

Carol Albert is the senior advisor for federal funding in Gov. Jay Inslee's office. She said these funding sources are important for combating climate change.

"There's never been a better time," said Albert, "to get projects going in communities, that are contributing to cleaner and healthier and more prosperous areas of Washington, to really move away from fossil fuels."

Albert said FundHubWA could prove especially useful for local governments in rural communities.

People in these areas often do more than one job, which can make it overwhelming to track all the available opportunities.

"There are just not enough hours in the day," said Albert. "So the portal is a way for them to get to this information quickly and then assess if they or their communities would qualify for it."

The website is supported with funding from the Climate Commitment Act, which could be repealed in November if Initiative 2117 passes.

Albert said regardless of the outcome of the election, the future of FundHubWA will be up to state lawmakers.




get more stories like this via email