CONCORD, N.H. -- The New Hampshire primary results may be even more important in light of a new poll of likely Iowa caucus voters that shows a close five-way race for the Democratic presidential nomination there. The poll also suggests the voters generally like all the leading candidates.

The survey late last week was done by David Binder Research. Its founder, pollster David Binder, said they found a close race between five candidates, led by Joe Biden and Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass. He listed the percentages: "Former Vice President Biden in first place with 24, followed by Elizabeth Warren at 18, (Former South Bend, Ind.) Mayor Pete Buttigieg at 16, Sen. Bernie Sanders (D-Vt.) at 14, and Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) at 11."

Commissioned by the group Focus on Rural America, the poll found all five of the top candidates have high favorability ratings -- but Klobuchar pulled ahead as the candidate more people thought would best meet the needs of rural Iowa. The Iowa caucuses are Feb. 3, a week from next Monday.

Binder ran a similar quarterly poll in September. Compared with that survey, he said, support for Biden and Warren has fallen some.

"But the other three -- Mayor Pete, Sen. Sanders and Sen. Klobuchar, looking at third, fourth and fifth place in this tightly bunched field -- now all have moved up," he said.

According to Binder, by and large the folks they spoke with said they like all the leading candidates. He noted that means the level of support for any of them could change before the vote, or even during the caucuses.

"All the top five candidates now have favorability ratings in the high 70s or 80s," he said. "There still may be some fluidity, because the caucus-goers actually like multiple candidates."

Under Democratic Party rules, if any candidate's support comes in under 15% "viability" in the first round of caucus votes, that candidate is eliminated and their supporters are allowed to pick a different candidate.

The poll results are online at focusonruralamerica.com.


get more stories like this via email

Members of the Texas Legislature are back in Austin for its 89th legislative session.

After newly elected lawmakers are sworn in, members will vote on a new Speaker of the House.

Cal Jillson, professor of political science at Southern Methodist University, said it appears moderate Rep. Dustin Burrows, R-Lubbock, has enough support from both Democrats and middle of the road Republicans to beat the more conservative Rep. David Cook, R-Mansfield, but Gov. Greg Abbott, Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick and Attorney General Ken Paxton could try to sway the vote.

"We'll see how strongly Patrick, Abbott and Paxton weigh in behind Cook to try to get the conservative speaker that they haven't been able to get for the past decade," Jillson explained.

Republicans have the majority in both the Senate and House of Representatives. Jillson pointed out school vouchers, border patrol, the power grid and water issues are top priories for lawmakers.

After the 2023 session, Abbott convened several special sessions in an unsuccessful attempt to pass a school voucher program. Jillson expects funding for both private and public schools will be addressed over the next 140 days.

"I think they have enough revenue available to start a voucher program and then to go ahead and expand public school funding," Jillson observed. "The trick is in the details. "

He pointed out the proposed voucher program was scaled back from two years ago. Funding for public schools has not increased since 2019.

Border security is also a top priority for the Republican Party. Jillson stressed with President-elect Donald Trump in the White House, lawmakers will be able to pass more legislation without pushback from Washington.

"There may well be a state border patrol bill to put more Texas uniforms on the border," Jillson projected. "Certainly, there will be more attempts to give local law enforcement more power to arrest people they find in the country illegally."


get more stories like this via email

The League of Women Voters of Florida is taking a personal approach to restoring voting rights for returning citizens.

The group is sending thousands of handwritten postcards to people with felony convictions, many of whom are unaware they may already be eligible to vote. The postcard initiative is part of a broader effort to ensure people know their rights and have the legal support they need to navigate Florida's complex voting restoration process.

Cecile Scoon, copresident of the League of Women Voters of Florida, described the importance of direct outreach to returning citizens and said the postcard campaign has made a significant impact.

"I have personally looked at people's records and they were not voting for over 10 to 20 years, but they didn't know that their felony charge was dropped to a misdemeanor," Scoon outlined. "So, 'I never filed a court paper.' I just read their records and that person was voting, like, within a week -- crying, excited."

The League's efforts began with Florida's 2018 passage of Amendment 4, which restored voting rights to most people with felony convictions. However, added fines and fees requirements created barriers, and while the state introduced a process to verify voter eligibility, advocates said it remains too complex and confusing for many returning citizens.

Scoon highlighted the challenges posed by the state's requirement, emphasizing incomplete or missing records often prevent people from proving they have paid their fines and fees.

"We proved that many of the records were lost, but the government was saying, 'You have to show me that you paid it.' If someone diligently looked for their records, 20 or 30% can't find them all," Scoon explained. "So, how are you going to prove you paid something, then there's no record, or they paid, and the probation office moved and didn't keep the record?"

She noted the League is advocating for legislative reforms to simplify voter eligibility verification. Despite challenges, like returned postcards due to the transient nature of returning citizens, Scoon pointed out they have managed to reach 5,000 people with felony convictions and yielded positive results.

She added anyone who needs assistance from the League's pro bono attorneys can call 407-710-5496 or email canivote@lwvfl.org.

Arkansas lawmakers are at the Capitol today for the start of the 95th Legislative session. Over the next 88 days, legislators will discuss more than 2,000 bills that have been filed since November.

University of Arkansas Political Science Professor Andrew Dowdle said legislators will also attempt to implement bills passed during the first term of Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders.

"Part of that is the Learns Act, where about half of all new state spending is going to private school vouchers," said Dowdle. "There was also an Arkansas Forward report to try to find savings in state government."

He said the report includes measures to slash $300 millions from the state's budget in six years, and a plan to pay state workers more competitive salaries.

One of Sanders' more controversial plans is to build a new 3,000-bed prison in Charleston, in Franklin County. Dowdle said the proposal has received pushback from residents in the area.

"Nobody seems to want a prison in their own neighborhood," said Dowdle. "You usually end up finding more support for prisons in rural areas at times where you end up having higher times of unemployment, and I don't think Charleston would really see itself in that light."

State Sen. Bryan King, R-Green Forest, has filed a draft bill opposing the new prison.

His proposal addresses reducing overcrowding in county jails by investing in new construction, expansions, or renovations in jails with the highest prisoner backlog.


get more stories like this via email