NH Voters Take Note: Latest Iowa Poll Finds “Tightly Bunched Field”
Wednesday, January 22, 2020
CONCORD, N.H. -- The New Hampshire primary results may be even more important in light of a new poll of likely Iowa caucus voters that shows a close five-way race for the Democratic presidential nomination there. The poll also suggests the voters generally like all the leading candidates.
The survey late last week was done by David Binder Research. Its founder, pollster David Binder, said they found a close race between five candidates, led by Joe Biden and Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass. He listed the percentages: "Former Vice President Biden in first place with 24, followed by Elizabeth Warren at 18, (Former South Bend, Ind.) Mayor Pete Buttigieg at 16, Sen. Bernie Sanders (D-Vt.) at 14, and Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) at 11."
Commissioned by the group Focus on Rural America, the poll found all five of the top candidates have high favorability ratings -- but Klobuchar pulled ahead as the candidate more people thought would best meet the needs of rural Iowa. The Iowa caucuses are Feb. 3, a week from next Monday.
Binder ran a similar quarterly poll in September. Compared with that survey, he said, support for Biden and Warren has fallen some.
"But the other three -- Mayor Pete, Sen. Sanders and Sen. Klobuchar, looking at third, fourth and fifth place in this tightly bunched field -- now all have moved up," he said.
According to Binder, by and large the folks they spoke with said they like all the leading candidates. He noted that means the level of support for any of them could change before the vote, or even during the caucuses.
"All the top five candidates now have favorability ratings in the high 70s or 80s," he said. "There still may be some fluidity, because the caucus-goers actually like multiple candidates."
Under Democratic Party rules, if any candidate's support comes in under 15% "viability" in the first round of caucus votes, that candidate is eliminated and their supporters are allowed to pick a different candidate.
The poll results are online at focusonruralamerica.com.
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