PORTLAND, Ore. - Starting this month, more than 314,000 chinook salmon are expected to make their way up the Columbia River - an impressive spring return, if it happens. However, the actual numbers often end up being very different than the early projections, and last year, none of the salmon stock returns lived up to the early estimates.

According to Doug DeHart, a former Oregon Chief of Fisheries, the most common methods for these "educated guesses" haven't proven especially reliable in recent years.

"These large error rates have led the scientific folks who do this stuff to have a whole series of little conferences about, 'What's going wrong here? Should we change how we project these numbers?'"

The projections are used to set fishing seasons, make management plans for dams and hatcheries, and more. Over the last 30 years, they have been higher than actual returns 11 times and lower 19 times; only seven of the forecasts were close to the actual fish numbers.

DeHart, who is a fisheries biologist, agrees it should be a good year for salmon fishing, both spring and fall. He says there is always uncertainty where nature is involved, although efforts to boost salmon survival appear to be working - most notably, the additional water spilled over the Columbia River dams as required by a court order.

"The spills clearly produced additional survival. We saw it in the juveniles and now we're seeing it in the numbers of adults. It's an important addition, and one of the few new tools in the toolbox."

Fish and wildlife departments in Washington and Oregon also credit good ocean conditions for improved fish survival.

DeHart points out that at least 80 percent of the returning fish originated in hatcheries. The separate counts for the endangered, wild fish don't look as impressive, he adds.

"They're the ones that are ESA-listed and constrain fisheries. That's the big challenge. And there the news is cautiously optimistic, but not great."

If the forecast of 462,000 returning fish for a different salmon stock, the sockeye, is true, it would set a Columbia River record.

Fish forecast numbers are from the Washington Dept. of Fish & Wildlife and Northwest Sportsman magazine.



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Wild Chinook salmon have returned to the Upper Klamath River less than two months after the largest dam-removal project in U.S. history to remove four outdated hydroelectric dams.

After 20 years of organizing and legal battles by the Yurok Tribe and other groups, 400 miles of historic salmon habitat have reopened. Scientists are now monitoring the effects of the dam removal on salmon populations.

Yurok Tribe member Amy Bowers Cordalis said they've been astonished by how quickly the migrating fish are returning to areas that haven't supported them for generations.

"And all these people are using Indigenous knowledge and marrying it with Western modern science to observe and to tell us how the river is healing," she said, "and it's really a remarkable opportunity."

Cordalis also is founder of the Indigenous conservation group Ridges to Riffles. The data being collected details, among other things, fish-spawning locations, their health and numbers - all of which will be crucial for predicting future populations.

For the Yurok, said biologist and Yurok Tribe member Barry McCovey, a strong wild salmon population is a fundamental part of their identity and livelihood.

"Success has to do with our ability to be Indigenous people, and practice the way of life that we've done since the beginning of time," he said. "Are we able to catch enough fish to feed our elders? Are we able to have enough fish in the river so that we can teach our children to fish?"

The dam removal was also done to improve water quality in the Klamath Basin. The research is expected to benefit fisheries and guide further restoration efforts along the river.


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Struggling salmon and other fish species could benefit from an updated Northwest Forest Plan.

The U.S. Forest Service is set to release a draft Environmental Impact Statement for the plan amendment next month.

While the recommended updates don't address fish populations specifically, they could still see habitat improvements.

Elaine Harvey is watershed department manager for the Columbia River Inter-Tribal Fish Commission, and said update recommendations include support of wildlife migration corridors and protections for old growth forests.

"The riparian corridors would assist with the cold water refugia that the forest systems provide, like into the Columbia River or even just to the different streams on the forest lands," said Harvey. "Those are key areas also where we have juvenile rearing in the forested areas. "

The Northwest Forest Plan was adopted in 1994 for management of forests in Washington, Oregon and northern California.

Changes to the plan stress addressing climate change and tribal treaty rights among things.

Harvey noted that cold water is critical for salmon, and is part of the reason fish are struggling in the Northwest.

"Each salmon species have their own threshold," said Harvey, "and water temperature, you know, is really a key environmental attribute that could limit survival of salmon."

Harvey said once the draft Environmental Impact Statement is released, the public can comment on it.

"It's real critical that everyone takes time to read the document and submit their comments," said Harvey, "especially the tribes - because there are 80-plus tribes that are affected by this plan, and when the original plan was created, the tribes were not consulted with."




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Coming into the new year, Columbia Riverkeeper is supporting efforts by the Cowlitz Tribe and Yakama Nation to restore salmon migration throughout the Lewis River. Fish passages would enable migration around dams and access to blocked habitats, essential for salmon and steelhead recovery in the culturally vital Lewis River basin.

Miles Johnson, legal director with Columbia Riverkeeper, said he's optimistic about a future of thriving fish and river wildlife.

"We're tentatively pretty excited," Johnson said. "We're going to see fish in parts of the Lewis River, which is a really important tributary of the lower Columbia. We're going to see fish in places that they haven't been in many, many years."

PacifiCorp recently agreed to a new schedule to install fish passage at two of its hydroelectric dams on the Lewis. Johnson said PacifiCorp broke a previous pledge to retrofit its dams to include fish passage, adding that Columbia Riverkeeper will continue to hold the company accountable for promises to tribes and the public.

Johnson said Columbia Riverkeeper will also be watching the project carefully to ensure PacifiCorp follows through, given what he described as its past focus on financial interests over legal obligations.

"These are really expensive projects to build, and PacifiCorp has demonstrated a history of putting its bottom line before its obligations, to the fish and people who use the river," he continued.

Johnson added although things are in motion, until the fish passage facilities are built in a way that's meaningful and going to work, they will continue to monitor the process and if necessary, try to hold PacifiCorp accountable.

He said science shows that reconnecting fish with existing, high-quality spawning habitat is the best way to recover the Lewis River's struggling populations of spring Chinook and coho salmon, steelhead and bull trout.